Contents ...
橋水 集團 瑞蒙.達利歐 大聲疾呼 .....
2022/09/29 16:07
瑞蒙.達利歐 Raymond Thomas Dalio 何許人也 ?

他 創辦了 世上 最大的 對沖基金 Hedge Fund ~ 避險﹐套利。白手起家﹐送報小童 成了億萬富翁。橋水基金   引起 老朽 注意的 乃是他 大聲疾呼 世界霸權的 風水輪流轉。

↑ ↑ ↑ 視屏 明顯的 缺失 ? 大英帝國的霸業 始於 擊敗 西班牙無敵艦隊。 而西班牙的霸業 始於 葡萄牙 首都 大地震。 是天災﹐而非人禍。 換言之﹐ 與 荷蘭 關係不大? 他的關點不必照單全收?

聽過 「修昔底德陷阱」 Thucydides Trap

"The Biggest Market Crash Of Our Generation Is Coming" 。← 股市崩盤 ←「修昔底德陷阱」似無關係?

Ray Dalio Predicts A Horrible Economic Crisis Where EVERYTHING WILL COLLAPSE ← 或很大 ? 太超過 ? 

↑ ↑ ↑ 美語 快如 連珠礮。 老朽 在美國混了一輩子﹐能100%听懂。小確幸。

瞎摸象: 法(?)無定法 ? !  未必吧【註一】? 將來的事﹐難說!


The Second Waltz


【註一】其實 問題 冰凍三尺﹐未爆彈 未必當下爆?! 听過 邊際平衡【註二】? 加州大地震﹐喊了一世紀﹐誰知 何時?

【註二】邊際 指 增減﹐有如 炒股的Margin﹐以 水庫為例﹐若 進出相等﹐則水位不漲跌。

迴響(4) :
4樓. 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目
2022/11/02 11:05
turning around ?  leading indicator ~ recede used car price 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目2022/11/06 04:23回覆
3樓. 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目
2022/10/09 17:17
Carl Icahn warns ‘the worst is yet to come’ for investors and compares U.S. inflation to the fall of the Roman empire。 This year he has repeatedly warned the U.S. economy and stock market are in trouble.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon lately has been privately telling his wealthiest investors he believes there’s a 90% chance the US is headed for a recession﹐ according to a leaked audio recording.

David Solomon CEO of Goldman Sachs laid off senior associates and vice presidents in US, London, China offices in September, 2022.
裂痕 ? 蛛絲馬跡 顯現 ? !

颱風 Hurricane Ian hit USA East coast hard。 Six private property insurers went insolvent earlier this year, and many people in the path of the storm do not have flood insurance.

The biggest players in the $23.7 trillion US Treasuries market﹐Japanese pensions and life insurers to foreign governments and US commercial banksare are all at once, to pull back, especially coming on the heels of the unprecedented volatility, deteriorating liquidity and weak auctions of recent months.

It’s also bad news for US taxpayers, who will ultimately have to foot the bill for higher costs.  哭哭 哭哭 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目2022/10/10 21:48回覆
According to Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Morgan Stanley strategists﹐a surging US dollar﹐an inventory glut﹐labor costs and other latent expenses﹐slowing demand will weigh on margins if the macro environment deteriorates.

The Inflation Reduction Act which imposes a 15% minimum tax on corporate book income and 1% excise tax on buybacks starting in 2023.

Earnings estimates and investment flows out of equity funds haven’t bottomed yet. 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目2022/10/10 23:20回覆
Global warming causes drought in northern hemisphere. that is plaguing trade and raising costs at a time when inflation is already soaring. A lack of water in Europe’s Rhine River snarled commodities shipments earlier this year. Hurricane Ian slammed into Florida and left a trail of destruction at citrus groves in its path. The Yangtze River that flows through China and feeds farms that provide much of the country’s food and massive hydroelectric stations recently saw its lowest seasonal water levels since records began in 1865. Relatively scant rainfall forecasts for the US mean the Mississippi River may continue to dry out. Farmers are bracing themselves for a big hit to export volumes in October. Northbound vessels of fertilizer and salt used to melt ice on roads are meanwhile delayed. 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目2022/10/11 03:46回覆
JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon on Monday cited the impact of runaway inflation, interest rates going up more than expected, the unknown effects of quantitative easing and Russia’s war in Ukraine. Asked for his views on the outlook for the S&P 500 , Dimon said the benchmark could yet fall by “another easy 20%” from current levels, adding that “the next 20% would be much more painful than the first.”

查 S&P500 droped from 4800 in Dec. 2021 to 3600 today about 25%. Another 25% will be 900 point at 2700 ? ! 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目2022/10/11 01:33回覆
2樓. PeterNJ(擁擠與便利)
2022/10/04 17:44
送報小童成了億萬富翁,他有獨立思考的能力吧!不像現在很多散戶都看YouTuber 分析股市,只會跟,不懂獨立思考。另外,你對加州大地震有什麼看法?

「情勢比人強?」 『國者人之積﹐人者心之器。」 換言之﹐股市 有美因素。 川普 壞透了﹐但 不少選民喜愛牠。 Meme stocks AMC GameStop

Fed 打通膨。 不可能殺到 Great Depression?!

加州大地震? 難說﹐不久前 Alaska 地震。 大多荒郊野外﹐損害不大。
摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目2022/10/04 21:47回覆
1樓. 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目
2022/10/01 00:47
Classical Music for Relaxation: Mozart, Bach, Tchaikovsky...