Original article : http://thediplomat.com/2015/08/time-to-review-us-policy-on-taiwan/

Time to Review US Policy on Taiwan?
The world has changed. It is time for a thoughtful debate on U.S. defense ties with Taiwan.

是時侯來審查美國對台政策？
世界已經改變。現在是進行台美防務關係深思與辯論時機。

By Dennis V. Hickey
August 05, 2015

作者：郝志堅
2015年8月5日

There is big trouble brewing in “Little China” – the Republic of China (Taiwan). The time has arrived for the U.S. Department of State to spearhead a detailed interagency policy review of America’s relationship with Taiwan with a special focus on its security commitments to the island. Numerous considerations point to the need for such a study.

有大麻煩醞釀中的“小中國” - 中華民國 （台灣）。時間已經到了美國國務院把矛頭指向美台關係的詳細政策審查，特別注重在美國對台灣的安全承諾。眾多的因素指向需要這樣的研究。

Every American is familiar with the rise of China. The U.S. needs China’s cooperation to cope with a wide range of pressing global problems, including worldwide economic challenges, terrorism, proliferation of weapons of mass destruction, environmental degradation, health issues, dwindling energy supplies, and the sporadic crises on the Korean Peninsula to name just a few. Moreover, China is now the world’s second largest economy, one of the world’s fastest growing economies, third largest military power, and the single largest foreign holder of U.S. government debt. The changes occurring within China are astounding. But some things remain constant – including Beijing’s steadfast opposition to Washington’s military support for Taipei. U.S. decision-makers are painfully aware that, while American support for Taiwan is not the only issue that divides Washington and Beijing, it is the most contentious and longstanding problem. So lobbyists are correct when they claim that “Taiwan matters.”  

每一個美國人都很了解中國的崛起​​。美國需要中國的合作，以應對廣泛緊迫的全球問題，包括全球的經濟挑戰，恐怖主義，大規模殺傷性的武器暴力，環境惡化，健康問題性，減少的能源供應，以及朝鮮半島上一些不時的危機。 此外，中國目前是世界第二大經濟體，是世界上增長最快的經濟體之一，第三大軍事強國，而且是美國國債的最大持有國。 中國發生的變化是驚人的。 但有些狀況保持不變 - 包括北京的堅決反對華盛頓對台之軍事支持。美國的決策者都痛苦地意識到，雖然美國對台灣的支持並不是華盛頓和北京唯一的問題，但它是最有爭議的和長期存在的問題。所以當說客們說“台灣是重要的” 他們聲稱是正確的。 

Relations between Taipei and Beijing have improved enormously since 2008. However, the military buildup opposite Taiwan continues. In 2015, China’s “official” defense budget climbed 10.1 percent to approximately $141.5 billion. This marked the 24th consecutive annual increase in defense outlays. A major focus of the military modernization program appears to be improving China’s ability to conduct military operations against Taiwan and to deter, delay, and deny U.S. intervention in a cross-strait conflict. In other words, the cost of U.S. intervention in a Taiwan crisis is mounting.

從2008年到現在，台北和北京之間的關係已經大大改善。 然而，在台灣對岸的軍事集結仍然繼續。 2015年，中國的“官方”國防預算上升10.1％至約1415億美元。這標誌著國防開支的連續第24年增長。 軍事現代化計劃的主要重點似乎是提高中國打擊台灣的軍事行動力，和威懾，拖延，並拒絕美國介入兩岸衝突的能力。換句話說，美國介入台灣危機的成本正在提高。

Meanwhile, defense spending in Taiwan is trending downward. Taiwan’s military budget as a percentage of GDP has dropped from 3.8 percent in 1994 to 2.0 percent in 2014, and from 24.3 percent of total government spending to 16.2 percent in the same period. Troop levels dropped from 450,000 in the 1990s to 210,000 in 2014. More cuts are on the horizon. Some hope the arrival of a new president and administration in 2016 will reverse this trend. But security analysts remain skeptical. Military spending is unpopular in Taiwan.

同時，台灣的國防預算正在下降趨勢中。 台灣的軍事預算佔GDP的比例從1994年的 3.8％降至2014年的2.0%。在同一時期，並從政府總支出的24.3％降至16.2％。 部隊人數從1990年代45萬到2014年削減至21萬，更多的縮減也在計劃中。 一些人希望新總統和政府在2016年的到來能扭轉這一趨勢。但國安分析者仍持懷疑態度。 在台灣，國防開支是不得人心的。

Internal trends in Taiwan hold the potential to complicate U.S. security policy. Most people on the island now identify themselves as Taiwanese rather than Chinese. Moreover, opinion polls conducted in 2013 show that 37.7 percent of the people now support de jure independence from China even if it causes the mainland to attack the island (76.1 percent support independence if the mainland does not attack). Perhaps equally worrisome for Washington, a majority of the Taiwan population believes that the U.S. will send troops to defend them if a declaration of independence leads to war with China. And a growing number (almost 40 percent) do not think the Chinese threat to attack the island is credible. This comes at a time when support among the American people for U.S. military action to help Taiwan defend itself has dropped to an all-time low. According to a poll conducted in 2014 by the Chicago Council on Global Affairs, the overwhelming majority of the American public (71 percent) opposes sending troops to defend Taiwan if it is attacked by China.

台灣的內部趨勢潛在性地引起美國國家安全政策之複雜化。大多數島上的人們認為自己是台灣人而不是中國人。 此外，在2013年進行的民意調查顯示，37.7％的人民支持台灣獨立，即使它會導致大陸攻擊台灣（76.1％的人支持獨立，如果大陸不攻擊）。 也許同樣令華盛頓擔憂的是，大多數台灣人民相信，如果宣布獨立導致與中國的戰爭，美國會出兵保護台灣。 而且越來越多（近40％）的台灣人不認為中國的威脅進攻台灣是可信的。可是目前美國人民對美國以軍事行動助台的意向已經下降到了歷史最低點。據2014年由芝加哥全球事務委員會進行的一項民意調查顯示，絕大多數美國民眾（71％）反對出兵保衛台灣，如果它是來自中國的攻擊。

Many predict that Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) will return to power in 2016. The party has sought to “rebrand” itself as a “responsible” alternative to the ruling Kuomintang (KMT). But U.S. defense planners cannot help but wonder if the DPP will seek to entrap the U.S. in a cross-strait crisis in an effort to achieve its dreams of independence from China. Tsai Ing-wen, the DPP presidential candidate, has done little to assuage such fears. The candidate’s positions on many of the most important issues of the day remain opaque and unclear, especially her plans for handling relations with Beijing. And despite its lead in the polls, there are concerns that the DPP has given up on democracy. For example, it is reportedly embracing a Middle Eastern practice known as “rent a mob” and subsidizing extremists who attack Taiwan’s government ministries. This makes it increasingly difficult for Americans to sensibly argue that Taiwan is a “model of democracy.”

許多人預測，台灣的民主進步黨（DPP）將在2016年重返政權。 民進黨設法“更名”本身作為一個“負責任”的政黨來替代現在執政的國民黨。但是，美國國防政策規劃人士不禁質疑，如果民進黨為了實現台獨夢想，會把美國捲入兩岸危機。 而蔡英文，民進黨總統候選人，卻沒有做多少工作來化解美國疑慮。 且在許多最重要的議題上，特別是她打算如何處理與北京間的關係，態度模糊不清。 儘管其在民調中領先，也有人擔心，民進黨已經放棄了民主。例如，據報導指出，民進黨採行中東的聚眾滋事作法(rent a mob)，「並資助極端份子攻擊台灣的政府部門」，使得美國愈來愈難認為台灣是民主的典範。

The U.S. is Taiwan’s primary security partner and the only country that might provide it with military support in a conflict with China. In the event of war, there will be no “coalition of the willing.” America cannot expect assistance from Canada, Australia, or any country in Europe. When discussing America’s failure in the Vietnam conflict, the late Robert S. McNamara, former U.S. Defense Secretary, warned that if the U.S. cannot persuade governments with similar interests and similar values of the merits of multilateral military action, it should think long and hard before proceeding unilaterally.

美國是台灣的主要安全合作夥伴，並可能為其提供與中國發生衝突的軍事支持的唯一國家。在戰爭的情況下，不會有“自願聯盟”。 美國不要指望從加拿大，澳大利亞，還是在歐洲任何國家的援助。當討論美國在越戰的失敗時，已故羅伯特麥克馬拉，美國前國防部長警告說，如果美國無法說服其他政府和軍方的聯盟，它必須在獨力出手前深思熟慮。

The world is changing. But the fundamentals of U.S. policy toward Taiwan have not changed for decades and U.S.-Taiwan security ties remain largely frozen in time. Many policies that were deemed necessary in the 1970s are obsolete today. Does this observation apply to America’s defense relationship with Taiwan?

世界正在發生變化。但美國對台政策在基本上幾十年來並未改變，美台安全關係在很大程度上凍結。許多70年代必要的政策現在已經過時。這是否適用於觀察美國與台灣的防務關係？


To be sure, this question makes some uncomfortable. And Washington should not rush to strengthen, revise or repeal the U.S. security commitment to Taiwan. However, it makes little sense to adopt an inertial approach to the matter. Irrespective of one’s position toward the Taiwan issue, there are questions about this bilateral defense relationship that deserve thoughtful study and debate among Americans at both the popular and elite levels.

可以肯定，這個問題使得一些人不舒服。華盛頓不應該急於加強，修訂或廢除美國對台灣的安全承諾。但是，採用一成不變的方式也沒有什麼意義。不論對台灣問題立場如何，美台安全防務關係還是值得美國大眾和高級領導詳盡的研討和辯論。 

Dennis V. Hickey is Distinguished Professor of Political Science and Director of the Graduate Program in Global Studies at Missouri State University and the author of numerous books and articles about U.S.-Taiwan security relations. 

郝志堅是密蘇里州立大學政治學研究所主任，特聘教授和許多有關美台安全關係書籍和文章的作者。