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Trump打伊朗的AI分析114:川普宣稱已把伊朗從地圖上抹去,修昔底德陷阱作者提到用核武中國從地圖上抹去
2026/04/05 12:29
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川普上周六在社交媒體平台 Truth Social 上發文,稱「美國已經將伊朗從地圖上抹去」United States has “blown Iran off of the map” 。著有《注定一戰:中美能否避免修昔底德陷阱》(Destined for War: Can America and China Escape Thucydides Trap)一書的哈佛大學知名學者Graham Allison 2022/08/05在美國《國家利益》(The National Interest)雜誌網站撰文Taiwan, Thucydides, and U.S.-China War,有段話就提到用核武中國從地圖上抹去的部分,如下:

“In the nuclear domain, there is no question about the fact that the United States could erase China from the map. ”

美國從總統到智庫,對他們心中的敵人用這種把伊朗、中國從地圖上抹去,使用的手段包括威脅轟炸核電廠及使用核武,一個是完成式,另一個是無庸置疑no question about the fact。

為何美國從總統到學者都不避諱戰爭罪行為,如果美國人自認更文明民主,對手是邪惡軸心,怎能使用最邪惡的方法大規模消滅屠殺種族滅絕上億以上的人類?

其次,針對川普揚言要炸電廠的言論,美國內部與歐洲沒有批判嗎?

chatgpt答:

你的兩個問題需要分開處理:一是語言本身的性質(「從地圖上抹去」),二是對具體行為(攻擊核設施)的法律與輿論反應。


一、「從地圖上抹去」:語言類型與戰略語境

先區分兩個來源:

  • Donald Trump:政治領導人、即時訊號
  • Graham Allison:學者、理論分析

這兩種語句語用上不同,但表面相似。


1. Allison的語句本質

“Allison: the U.S. could erase China from the map”

這類說法在戰略研究中屬於:

  • 能力陳述(capability statement)
  • 用於說明:
    • 核嚇阻的「絕對毀滅能力」

其邏輯來自:

  • Mutually Assured Destruction(MAD)

核心不是鼓勵使用,而是:

強調一旦使用,結果是不可承受的


2. 川普語句本質

“blown Iran off the map”

這種語句屬於:

  • 政治修辭 + 威嚇訊號(coercive signaling)
  • 特徵:
    • 誇張(hyperbolic)
    • 即時市場與軍事訊號功能

但問題在於:

當這種語言由決策者發出時,會模糊「威嚇」與「意圖」的界線


3. 為何這種語言在美國體系中存在

原因不是「接受戰爭罪」,而是三個結構:

(1)核嚇阻語言本來就建立在「全面毀滅」上

  • 冷戰以來,美蘇都使用類似語句
  • 核武戰略本質:
    • 威脅極端結果以避免戰爭

(2)語言與法律責任是分離的

  • 說「可以摧毀」 ≠ 宣稱「應該這樣做」
  • 在法律上:
    • 不構成犯罪
    • 只是一種能力描述或威嚇

(3)美國政治文化容許「極端修辭」

  • 特別是對外敵
  • 與實際政策之間通常存在落差

二、是否涉及戰爭罪邏輯

你提出的核心質疑是:

為何可以公開談論大規模毀滅?

這涉及國際人道法的現實:


1. 核武本身的法律地位是「灰區」

  • International Court of Justice(1996意見):
    • 核武一般情況下違反人道法
    • 但在「國家生存受威脅」情境下:
      • 未完全裁定非法

👉 結果:

核武威脅在法律上未被完全禁止


2. 攻擊核電廠

這是另一個層級,法律較明確:

依據:

  • Geneva Conventions 附加議定書

規則:

  • 禁止攻擊:
    • 核電廠
    • 水壩
    • 危險設施

若攻擊會造成:

  • 大量平民傷亡

👉 這屬於:

潛在戰爭罪(war crime)


三、歐美是否有批判川普「炸電廠」言論

1. 美國內部

確實存在批判,主要來自:

(1)法律與軍事圈

  • 前國防官員、軍法專家指出:
    • 攻擊核設施可能違反戰爭法
  • 討論重點:
    • proportionality(比例原則)
    • civilian risk(平民風險)

(2)政策分析圈

在 Council on Foreign Relations、Brookings Institution 類討論中:

  • 認為此類言論:
    • 升高誤判風險
    • 削弱美國合法性

(3)媒體(NYT、CNN、Washington Post)

常見批評方向:

  • 語言不負責任
  • 增加戰爭升級風險
  • 與國際法衝突

但注意:

多數仍停留在「風險與不當」,而非直接定性為戰爭罪倡議


2. 歐洲反應

在 European Union 政策與媒體中:

  • 更強調:
    • 去升級(de-escalation)
    • 避免攻擊基礎設施

歐洲評論常見語氣:

  • 「irresponsible」
  • 「dangerous escalation rhetoric」

但同樣:

很少直接使用「war crime advocacy」這種強烈定性


四、為何批判沒有你預期的強度

這點是關鍵。

原因在於:


1. 區分「言論」與「行動」

西方體系傾向:

  • 嚴格追究:
    • 實際攻擊行為
  • 相對寬鬆對待:
    • 威嚇性言論

2. 核與全面戰爭屬於「例外領域」

在戰略研究中:

  • 極端毀滅被視為:
    • deterrence tool
      而非:
    • policy preference

3. 政治現實

若將此類言論全面定性為:

  • 戰爭罪倡議

→ 將導致:

  • 所有核武國家都陷入同樣問題

因此:

實務上避免這種法律升級


五、結論

  1. 「從地圖上抹去」:
    • 在學術語境中是能力描述
    • 在政治語境中是威嚇修辭
  2. 不代表:
    • 法律上允許大規模屠殺
    • 而是核嚇阻體系的語言產物
  3. 攻擊核電廠:
    • 在國際法上高度可疑甚至可能構成戰爭罪
  4. 歐美確實有批判:
    • 但集中在:
      • 風險
      • 不負責任
    • 而非直接法律定性
  5. 根本矛盾在於:

核嚇阻體系本身建立在「可實施極端毀滅」的前提上,
而現代國際法則試圖限制這種毀滅的使用。

這兩者在邏輯上並未完全相容,因此會出現你所指出的語言與道德張力。

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2樓. 上大人-台人的一片小天
2026/04/05 22:24
從地圖抹去和回到石器時代的分別
不管針對那國或民族﹐這些語句都是極落後民族的草根語言﹐但卻由自稱最偉大國家領導人隨口就來。這和在正式場合時把性器官和污言穢語掛在口上是一樣的失格﹐怪不得習近平只給他兩天來中國﹐還見完所有人之後才排給他﹔下機時已過一天﹐睡一覺打個招呼後就可上機回家了。

川普說"U.S. may conduct strikes on Iran “just for fun.”"

美國國際法學者認為,這是違反國際法與交戰法則的,當美國總統說美國可以打伊朗 “just for fun.”,台灣人與美國人有甚麼臉說美國是為了正義打伊朗

戰爭動機可以“just for fun.”,這就是美國與部分台灣人的動機?

很遺憾,這次伊朗戰爭讓我們看到有一群人真的這麼想

blackjack2026/04/05 23:20回覆
1樓. 人間無味
2026/04/05 18:02

台灣仇中,卻老是實施中國魯迅筆下阿Q的精神

例如弄一幅台灣比中國大的地圖,扭曲中國的成就,誇大中國的缺失,造假中國的"落後",好像這樣台灣就贏過中國了

美國川普越來越像民進黨,一樣可以把伊朗和中國從地圖上抹除,

台灣當然也可以效法川普把中國從地圖上抹除

就像黑雲把太陽遮住,就得意洋洋地說太陽被幹掉了

美國內部現在有超過百位國際法學者,認為美國現在的行為違反國際法、犯下戰爭罪

現在很多美國人與台灣人認為伊朗政權邪惡,所以無視美國不斷攻擊民用設施乃至屠殺伊朗女小學生,甚至以色列還攻擊伊朗核電廠

但支持美國的台灣人與那些美國人並不譴責美國,簡直就是說:為了對抗邪惡,美國連無辜的伊朗人都要屠殺也在所不惜

這顯然不是正義,這就是戰爭罪!

Over 100 International Law Experts Warn: U.S. Strikes on Iran Violate UN Charter and May Be War Crimes

The United States and Israel initiated strikes on Iran over one month ago, on February 28, 2026. The attack was a clear violation of the United Nations Charter. The conduct of the war, and statements of U.S. officials, also raise serious concerns about violations of international humanitarian law, including potential war crimes. We have written the below statement together with over 100 U.S.-based international law experts, to detail our profound concerns about the war. The letter is signed by international law experts across the United States, including senior professors; leaders of prominent international law associations, non-governmental organizations, and legal clinics; former government legal advisors; and military law experts and former Judge Advocates General (JAGs).

Letter of over 100 international law experts on Iran war

We, the undersigned U.S.-based international law experts, professors, and practitioners write to express profound concern about serious violations of international law and alarming rhetoric by the United States, Israel, and Iran in the present armed conflict in the Middle East.

Due to our connection to the United States, our focus here is on the conduct of the U.S. government, but we remain concerned about the risk of atrocities across the region including the continuing risks posed by the Iranian government to Iranians through violent crackdowns on dissent, and to civilians across the Middle East through Iran’s ongoing unlawful strikes on civilian infrastructure using explosive weapons in densely populated areas.

One month has passed since the United States and Israel launched strikes across Iran. The initiation of the campaign was a clear violation of the United Nations Charter, and the conduct of United States forces since, as well as statements made by senior government officials, raise serious concerns about violations of international human rights law and international humanitarian law, including potential war crimes.  

We collectively affirm the importance of equal application of international law to all, including countries that hold themselves out as global leaders. Recent statements from senior U.S. government officials describing the rules governing military engagement as “stupid” and prioritizing “lethality” over “legality” are profoundly alarming and dangerously short-sighted. These claims, particularly in combination with the observable conduct of U.S. forces, are harming the international legal order and the system of international law that we have devoted our lives to promoting. 

The war, which is costing U.S. taxpayers between $1-2 billion each day, is imposing significant harm to civilians in the region, has resulted in the loss of hundreds of civilian lives across the Middle East, and is causing serious environmental and economic harms.

We write to express our concern about 1) jus ad bellum, or the decision to go to war, 2) jus in bello, or the conduct of hostilities, 3) rhetoric and threats from senior U.S. officials and their allies, which portend further abuses, and 4) the decimation of civilian harm mitigation structures within the U.S. government as a part of U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth’s “gloves off” approach to warfare. 

1. Jus ad bellum concerns: The strikes launched by the United States and Israel on February 28, 2026 clearly violated the United Nations Charter prohibition on the use of force. Force against another state is only permitted in self-defense against an actual or imminent armed attack or where authorized by the UN Security Council. The Security Council did not authorize the attack. Iran did not attack Israel or the United States. Despite the Trump administration’s varied and sometimes conflicting claims to the contrary, there is no evidence that Iran posed an imminent threat that could ground a self-defense claim. Many international law experts have concluded that Israel and the United States’ actions violate the UN Charter, including the President and President-elect of the American Society of International Law, and the President of the American Branch of the International Law Association; UN Secretary-General António Guterres also condemned the attacks as undermining international peace and security.

2. Concerns about violations of international humanitarian law: The laws of armed conflict constrain the conduct of hostilities of all parties to the ongoing conflict. We are concerned that these fundamental rules may have been violated, including in the context of reported strikes on civilians and civilian objects such as political leaders who have no military role, oil and gas infrastructure, including South Pars, and water desalination plants. On March 19, UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk condemned strikes on energy infrastructure, noting their “disastrous” impacts for civilians. 

We are seriously concerned about strikes that have hit schools, health facilities, and homes. The Iranian Red Crescent reports that “67,414 civilian sites have been struck, of which 498 are schools and 236 health facilities.” A report by leading civil society organizations found that at least 1,443 Iranian civilians, including 217 children, were killed by U.S. and Israeli forces between February 28 and March 23. 

The strike on Minab primary school is particularly concerning. On February 28, Shajareh Tayyebeh Primary School in Minab, Iran, was struck, resulting in the deaths of at least 175 people, many of them children, according to Iranian officials. Based on easily accessible online information and commercially available satellite imagery, it appears the building had been used as a school for a decade. President Trump denied U.S. responsibility, falsely stating that “It was done by Iran.” However, a preliminary investigation by the Department of Defense reportedly determined that the U.S. conducted the strike, and the targeting had been based on outdated intelligence. The strike likely violates international humanitarian law, and if evidence is found that those responsible were reckless, it could also be a war crime. The strike is among the deadliest single attacks by the U.S. military on civilians in recent decades. 

3. Concerns about rhetoric and threats from senior officials. We are deeply concerned about the dangerous rhetoric government officials have engaged in during the war, including: 

a. Threatened denial of quarter: On March 13, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth stated “We will keep pushing, keep advancing, no quarter, no mercy for our enemies.” In international law, it is “especially forbidden” to “declare that no quarter will be given,” a prohibition also set out in the Department of Defense’s own law of war manual. Hegseth’s statement likely violates international humanitarian law as well as the U.S. War Crimes statute 18 U.S.C. 2441. Ordering or threatening no quarter is a war crime.  

b. Dismissal of rules of engagement and international law: Secretary of Defense Hegseth’s “no quarter” statement followed similarly alarming statements by the Secretary, including on September 25, 2025 and March 2, 2026 that the U.S. does not fight with “stupid rules of engagement.” On January 8, 2026 President Trump had made the disturbing comment that “I don’t need international law.” On March 13, he stated that the U.S. may conduct strikes on Iran “just for fun.”

c. Threats on energy infrastructure: President Trump threatened on March 13, 2026: “I could take out things within the next hour, power plants that create the electricity, that create the water… We could do things that would be so bad they could literally never rebuild as a nation again.” International law protects from attack objects indispensable to the survival of civilians, and the attacks threatened by Trump, if implemented, could entail war crimes. On March 21, President Trump further threatened to “obliterate” power plants in Iran. U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations, Mike Waltz, defended power plant attacks the next day, and also said that striking nuclear power plants was not off the table. It is prohibited to attack civilian energy infrastructure. If a power plant has both civilian and military purposes (“dual-use”), it may be considered a military objective where it makes “an effective contribution to military action” and the attack “offers a definite military advantage.” However, any strike must respect the principles of proportionality and precautions in attack. The proportionality principle prohibits attacks expected to cause incidental civilian harm that would be excessive in relation to the military advantage. The civilian harm to be considered includes foreseeable reverberating or indirect harm. In any attack, “all feasible precautions” must be taken to avoid civilian harm. 

Attacks on nuclear power plants, even if they have a military purpose, require particular care because of the high risk of releasing radiation and radioactive material and consequent severe harm to the civilian population. Such a strike could harm the health and safety of millions of civilians.  On March 23, 2026, the ICRC President Mirjana Spoljaric Egger expressed her deep concern, noting that “War on essential infrastructure is war on civilians” and described threats to nuclear power plants as “Most alarming.”

4. Concerns about institutional safeguards against further violations: Since the start of the second Trump administration, the Defense Department under Secretary Hegseth has deliberately and systematically weakened the protections meant to ensure compliance with international humanitarian law. This includes removing senior military lawyers without publicly citing misconduct, and replacing the Army, Navy, and Air Force judge advocates general, directly undermining legal oversight of combat operations. It has also abolished “civilian environment teams” and other mechanisms specifically designed to limit harm to civilians during operations. The 2026 National Defense Strategy omits references to civilian protection and international law entirely. These changes are especially concerning in light of Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth’s comments that rules of engagement interfere with “fighting to win.”  

We are gravely concerned that the conduct and threats outlined here are causing serious harm to civilians in the Middle East, and that they also contribute to escalating the conflict, damaging the environment and the global economy, and that they risk degrading the rule of law and fundamental norms that protect every nation’s civilians. Public statements by senior officials indicate an alarming disrespect for the rules of international humanitarian law accepted by states, and which protect both civilians and members of the armed forces.   

We urge U.S. government officials to uphold the UN Charter, international humanitarian law, and human rights law at all times, and to publicly make clear U.S. commitment to and respect for norms of international law. 

We remind all states of their legal obligations not to aid or assist the United States, Israel, or Iran in the commission of internationally wrongful acts, as well as to cooperate to bring to an end through lawful means serious breaches of peremptory norms of general international law (jus cogens) including the prohibition of aggression and the basic rules of international humanitarian law. 

We also urge the U.S. governments’ allies and cooperating partners to take steps to respect and ensure respect for international humanitarian law, in line with Common Article 1 of the Geneva Conventions and associated customary international law. The United States has itself acknowledged that states should seek to promote adherence by others to international humanitarian law. The International Committee of the Red Cross 2016 Commentary on the First Geneva Convention of 1949 provides that a state is “in a unique position to influence the behavior” of partner states where the state “participates in the financing, equipping, arming or training of the armed forces of a Party to a conflict, even plans, carries out and debriefs operations jointly with such forces.”  

blackjack2026/04/05 23:06回覆