The Monty Hall Problem

很有意思，大家來猜猜。The Monty Hall problem 談機率問題，是美國一個電視節目"Let's make a deal"猜獎節目，主持人叫Monty Hall,他想出來的。下面是題目:

A game-show host has placed a car behind one of three doors. There is a goat behind each of the other doors.

"First you point toward a door," he says. "Then I'll open one of the other doors to reveal a goat. After I've shown you the goat, you make your final choice whether to stick with your initial choice of doors, or to switch to the remaining door. You win whatever is behind the door."

You begin by pointing to door number 1. The host shows you that door number 3 has a goat. What should you do (assuming you want the best odds of winning the car)?

•  Switch to door #2
•  Stay with door #1
•  It doesn't matter
•  Punch the host in the jaw

上面是一題智力測驗，您的答案是什麼，我選第四，哈哈!下面是解答請參考: