台灣經濟 Economic Decline

根據世銀週二所公布的預測，今明兩年台灣的經濟成長率將繼續在亞洲四小龍裡敬陪末座，這是一個極嚴重的警訊。台灣過去經濟成長、出口成長在亞洲四小龍裡經常名列前茅，此因企業積極投資，民眾樂於消費所致，但近年來此景不再，民間消費冷清，企業投資觀望，與亞洲各國經濟火熱恰成強烈對比。

A World Bank forecast published Tuesday anticipates that Taiwan's growth rate for this year and next will continue to be the lowest among Asia’s four Tigers. This comes as a grave warning. In the past, vigorous investment and enthusiastic domestic consumption typically kept Taiwan at the head of the four countries in terms of both economic and export growth, but this pattern has not held in recent years. Slumping consumption and a wait-and-see attitude among investors stand in sharp contrast to the thriving economies virtually everywhere else in Asia. 

今天台灣經濟成長率仍有四％的成長，事實上我們若看名目ＧＤＰ的成長率近五年平均更僅三．一％，顯示台灣附加價值的成長動能比經濟成長率來得更低，若以ＧＤＰ名目成長與韓、星、港相比，將出現更大落差。全球經濟競爭極為殘酷，巴西、阿根廷五十年前被極度看好，但由於經濟政策的延宕使得經濟競爭力為亞洲各國迎頭趕上，以歷史為鑑，若台灣執政者不能體察這個變局，快速回應全球化巨變，今天這個局面恐怕只是台灣經濟進一步下滑的開始而已。

Taiwan’s economic growth rate still reached 4% this year. In actual fact, however, a look at Taiwan’s nominal-GDP growth rate over the past 5 years shows it at an annual average of only 3.1%. This shows that value-added growth momentum in Taiwan is in fact lower than GDP growth, and if Taiwan’s nominal growth is compared to figures for South Korea, Singapore and Hong Kong, Taiwan is seen to be lagging even farther behind. Competition in the global economy is ruthless. Fifty years ago, for example, the potential of Brazil and Argentina was very highly regarded, but procrastination in the formulation of economic policies in these two countries allowed them to be overtaken by Asia. This is history worth studying. If Taiwan’s leaders prove unable to take stock of the situation and respond swiftly to the radical changes sweeping the globe, the state of affairs before us today could well prove to be just the beginning of Taiwan’s further economic decline.  

公布 issued, released

嚴重 severe, stern, serious, grave

stand in sharp contrast to, to contrast with, in contrast to

realize and respond

pick up the slack 有效運用人力物力改進組織績效

stir up (trouble)-> stimulate to promote

The bank forecasts continued stagnation of the next quarter.

Based on those data, the bank projects continued stagnation …