《經濟學人》警告台灣病！新台幣被低估55％成元兇 引爆大風險
中時新聞 邱怡萱
近年台灣在全球科技供應鏈中的重要性扶搖直上，經濟表現亮眼。英國《經濟學人》指出，台灣如今已成為全球最富裕的經濟體之一，但卻隱藏著結構性的矛盾現象，包括新台幣長期被低估等問題，被稱為「台灣病」或「福爾摩沙病」。
報導認為，台灣央行的貨幣政策已經過時，不但造成房價高漲，也讓食物、能源都仰賴進口，並導致台灣ㄧ般民眾無法享受經濟成果。
台灣受益全球對晶片的強烈需求，使台灣出口在五年內大增三倍，帶來史上罕見的巨額貿易順差，今年十月單月貨品貿易順差高達226億美元，年化後相當於GDP（經濟成長率）的31%，是歷史新高。 觀察今年以來台灣經常帳順差也達GDP的16%，遠高於過去十年的平均水平。
理論上，出口飆升會推動貨幣升值，但報導認為，台灣央行長期壓抑新台幣匯率，以維持出口競爭力，形成類似「荷蘭病」的經濟現象。
新台幣被嚴重低估55% 居全球之冠 報導引用衡量匯率偏離基礎價值程度的指標「大麥克指數」指出，新台幣兌美元的幣值被低估55%，為全球調查中最嚴重者，此外，彼得森國際經濟研究所的匯率模型亦顯示，新台幣自2008年起平均被低估約24%。
雖然台灣央行強調僅是「順勢調節」，但外匯存底已從1998年的900億美元，攀升至近6000億美元，占GDP七成以上，呈現長期單向增加的情況。
而台灣金融體系亦潛伏風險。過去央行會將外匯順差投入海外，但自2012年起增速減緩，改由壽險業大量配置海外美元資產，然而，由於保單以新台幣計價，若新台幣突然升值，美元資產價值將大幅縮水，形成嚴重的幣別錯配。
經濟學家預估，未避險部位可能高達2000億美元，相當於台灣GDP 的四分之一，具有「太大而不能倒」的風險。
央行長期壓低匯率 背後原因一覽 報導提及，台灣央行長期壓低匯率，分析背後原因也包含國安考量。
由於台灣外交孤立、非IMF成員，外匯存底被視為面對危機時的重要防線。加上1997年亞洲金融風暴期間的成功經驗，使政策更難鬆動。
況且，出口業者也普遍反對新台幣升值，特別是低技術製造業與晶片大廠，然而外部壓力正在增加，今年5月傳出美國要求台灣升值，新台幣兩日內大漲9%，顯示匯率對外力極為敏感。
https://tw.stock.yahoo.com/news/經濟學人-警告台灣病-新台幣被低估55-成元兇-引爆大風險-063847606.html
Wham! - Last Christmas (Lyrics)
Ah, aha Ooh, ohh Ohh
[Chorus] Last Christmas, I gave you my heart
But the very next day, you gave it away
This year, to save me from tears
Ill give it to someone special
Last Christmas, I gave you my heart
But the very next day, you gave it away (You gave it away)
This year, to save me from tears
Ill give it to someone special (Special)
[Verse 1] Once bitten and twice shy
I keep my distance, but you still catch my eye
Tell me, baby, do you recognize me?
Well, its been a year, it doesnt surprise me
[Verse 2] "Merry Christmas" I wrapped it up and sent it
With a note saying, "I love you", I meant it
Now I know what a fool Ive been
But if you kissed me now, I know youd fool me again
[Chorus] Last Christmas, I gave you my heart
But the very next day, you gave it away (You gave it away)
This year, to save me from tears
Ill give it to someone special (Special)
Last Christmas, I gave you my heart
But the very next day, you gave it away
This year, to save me from tears
Ill give it to someone special (Special, oh)
Oh, oh, baby
[Verse 3] A crowded room, friends with tired eyes
Im hiding from you and your soul of ice
My God, I thought you were someone to rely on
Me? I guess I was a shoulder to cry on
[Verse 4] A face of a lover with a fire in his heart
A man under cover but you tore me apart
Ooh-hoo Now Ive found a real love, youll never fool me again
[Chorus] Last Christmas, I gave you my heart
But the very next day, you gave it away (You gave it away)
This year, to save me from tears
Ill give it to someone special (Special)
Last Christmas, I gave you my heart
But the very next day, you gave it away
This year, to save me from tears (Ohh)
Ill give it to someone special (Special)
[Verse 4] A face of a lover with a fire in his heart (I gave you my heart)
A man under cover but you tore him apart
Maybe next year Ill give it to someone, Ill give it to someone special
Special... Someone, someone, Ill give it to someone, someone special
[Outro] Who give me something in return Ill give it to someone—
Hold my heart and watch it burn Ill give it to someone—
Ill give it to someone—
Ill give it to someone special
I thought you were here to stay (Oh, oh)
How could you love me for a day
I thought you were someone special
Gave you my heart
Ill give it to someone— Ill give it to someone—
Last Christmas
I gave you my heart
You gave it away
Ill give it to someone— Ill give it to someone—
La, la La, la, la, la, la La, la La, la, la, la La, la, la, la, la, la, la
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KhqNTjbQ71A&list=RDKhqNTjbQ71A&start_radio=1
