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A War Over Taiwan Is a $10 Trillion Risk.

.I’m Malcolm Scott, international economics enterprise editor in Sydney. Today we’re looking at what a war over Taiwan would cost the global economy. Send us feedback and tips to ecodaily@bloomberg.net or get in touch on X (formerly known as Twitter) via @economics. And if you aren’t yet signed up to receive this newsletter, you can do so here.

• A Potential Flashpoint :If there’s one thing the past few years have taught us, it’s that you just can’t rule anything out.

.Just as the global economy was recovering from a once-in-a-century pandemic, the outbreak of war in Ukraine and Gaza are reminders of how long-simmering tensions can erupt into conflict.

So while few put a high probability on an imminent Chinese invasion of Taiwan, everyone from Wall Street investors to military planners and the swathe of businesses that rely on the island’s semiconductors are already moving to hedge against such a risk. And with cross-Strait relations on the ballot, Taiwan’s Jan. 13 election is a potential flashpoint.

In today’s BigTake, Bloomberg Economics estimate the price tag of such a conflict at around $10 trillion, equal to about 10% of global GDP — dwarfing the blow from the war in Ukraine or Covid pandemic.

The Bloomberg Economics team modeled two scenarios: a Chinese invasion drawing the US into a local conflict, and a blockade cutting Taiwan off from trade with the rest of the world. A suite of models is used to estimate the impact on GDP, taking account of the blow to semiconductor supply, disruption to shipping in the region, trade sanctions and tariffs, and the impact on financial markets.

For the main protagonists, other major economies, and the world as a whole, the biggest hit comes from the missing semiconductors. Factory lines producing laptops, tablets and smartphones — where Taiwan’s high-end chips are the irreplaceable “golden screw” — would stall. Autos and other sectors that use lower-end chips would also take a significant hit.

To be clear, the team isn’t saying such scenarios are imminent. The People’s Liberation Army isn’t massing troops on the coast. Reports of corruption in China’s military cast doubts on President Xi Jinpings ability to wage a successful campaign. US officials say tensions eased somewhat at the November summit between President Joe Biden and Xi, who pledged “heart-warming” measures to woo foreign investors.

.But US officials say China may be planning a multipronged reaction to the election, with military incursions, economic sanctions and grey zone tactics like cyber-attacks. Officials in Washington and Taipei say the period from the election to inauguration of the new president in May is a danger zone for Chinese actions aimed at hemming in Taiwan’s next president.

If there’s an upside from theBloomberg Economics analysis, perhaps it’s this: The $10 trillion cost of a crisis would be so high for all players that the incentive to avoid it is strong.

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• The numbers are intended to help better understand such economic dynamics and allow deeper insights into interest-rate transmission and financial stability. They might also influence future monetary policy.

The data confirm a relatively high level of net wealth inequality in the euro area, but show that it at least decreased slightly since 2015 — as measured for example by the share of wealth held by the top 5% of the distribution versus the bottom 50%.

.彭博經濟研究估計,台海開戰將付出大約10兆美元的代價,相當於全球GDP的10%,遠超過俄烏戰爭,新冠肺炎疫情和全球金融危機所造成的影響。如此人力.

和財力代價之大,各方就算對現狀再怎麼不滿,都明白不該冒這種風險。

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美國華爾街投資人、軍事規劃者，戰略研究學者專家,至依賴台灣半導體的眾多企業,都已經開始採取措施以提防風險。美國國防部的國安專家,美國和日本的智庫,以及全球顧問公司都在制定各種情景,從中國對台灣實施海上的「封鎖」,到占領台灣離島,以及全面發動入侵。

.彭博經濟研究就兩種情境進行模擬：一是中國侵台將美國捲入地區性衝突,以及實施封鎖斷絕台灣與世界其他地區的貿易。其中使用一套模型來估計對GDP的影響,考慮到對半導體供應的打擊,當地航運被切斷,貿易制裁和關稅,以及對金融市場的影響。

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對於其他主要經濟體以及整個世界來說,最大的打擊來自於半導體的短缺。生產筆記型電腦,平板電腦和智慧手機的工廠生產線,台灣的高階晶片是無法替代的「關鍵」。汽車和其他使用低階晶片的產業也將受到顯著打擊。

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在開戰的情況下：--台灣經濟將受到嚴重打擊。根據最近可比的衝突,彭博經濟研究估計GDP將受到40%的衝擊。因人口和工業基地集中在沿海地區,人力和經濟成本都會增加。

-因和主要貿易夥伴的關係中斷,且無法獲取先進的半導體,中國大陸GDP將受到16.7%的打擊。-對美國而言,雖遠離戰火,但仍有很大風險,例如蘋果依賴亞洲電子供應鏈,GDP將下降6.7%。對於全世界而言,GDP將下降10.2%,東亞經濟體中以南韓,日本和其他東亞經濟體受到最大影響。

彭博經濟研究也模擬中國大陸對台灣實施一年封鎖對全球經濟的影響：

台灣第一年的GDP將下降12.2%。

對於中國,美國和整個世界,第一年的GDP分別將下降8.9%、3.3%和5%。.

國際戰略學者專家預估中國不會冒然的攻擊台灣,因為至2030年代中國將有核子動力航空母艦服役,屆時以壓倒性的軍事力量脅迫台灣議和而達到不戰而屈人之兵的策略應用,除此之外許多的戰略研究所及智庫學者專業人士分析認為,中國謀劃已久的"封鎖台灣"的執行計劃,極為可能性的於2024-2025.分階段實施,因為中國的政策決策者也就是說知悉封鎖台灣帶來的負面效應,所以不會全面的封鎖台灣,而是按照計劃分階段實施,讓台灣,美國及西方國家知曉封鎖台灣的影響力及影響到,經濟,國際貿易,旅遊,交通運輸等等方面的慘重損失, 對於中國而言,可能性只是九牛一毛,但是對於台灣,美國及西方國家而言,就是損失慘重的無法彌補的損失,更何況是真正的爆發海峽兩岸的戰爭,

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2024.台灣地區的領導人選舉活動,將是警張又精彩的結局,選舉人將面臨藍,綠,白,的選擇性的投票,鹿死誰手,尚未知曉? 

美國及西方國家的戰略學者專家,以2022/08.月中國藉由軍事演習包圍封鎖台灣四周的海域及空域總計7天,造成台灣與美國及西方國家的不小損失,足以證明出若是沒有發生真正的海峽兩岸的戰爭,那麼封鎖與包圍台灣就是最好的選擇,如此一來2024的台灣地區領導人的選舉活動,對於參選的政黨及選民將帶來空前絕後的效果,那就是藍營勝選一切造舊(統一與兩岸和平慢慢來有話好說),若是綠營勝選繼續執政依然故我的玩弄(台獨拒統).繼續擁抱美國的大腿與日本親善,那麼如此一來,中國就要執行,分階段的包圍及封鎖台灣"的執行計劃.俗話說好戲在後面吾人視目以待精彩的包圍及封鎖台灣戲碼上演.

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