演講核心概念：連續性的幻覺 (The Illusion of Continuity)

Shankar Vedantam 指出，當我們回首過去時，可以清楚看到自己改變了多少；但當我們展望未來，卻往往認為未來的自己會與現在擁有一樣的觀點、偏好和價值觀。他稱此為「連續性的幻覺」。

演講逐字內容整理 (重點節錄)

[00:00:00] 開場故事：受傷的足球少年 當我 12 歲時，踢足球弄傷了腳。那天晚上我沒告訴父母，因為隔天爸爸要帶我看一場足球電影。我擔心說了就要去看醫生，而我只想看電影。隔天我們走了兩公里的路去戲院，我一路跛行卻謊稱是鞋子裡有東西。電影很精彩，看完後我才說實話，最後打了三週石膏。 我講這個故事是因為：40 年後，我不再是足球迷了。我現在喜歡的是美式足球。12 歲的我覺得這不可理喻，甚至是一種背叛。

[00:01:23] 過去與未來的悖論 如果你回想三年前疫情前的自己，你會發現焦慮、隔離與生活動盪改變了你的觀點。這裡有個悖論：回顧過去時，我們能看見巨大的改變；但展望未來時，我們卻想像未來的自己會是一模一樣的人。我們知道世界會變（AI、氣候變遷），卻不認為「我們自己」的觀點、偏好會變。

[00:03:34] 約翰與史蒂芬妮的故事：生死抉擇 史蒂芬妮曾是一名護士，看過許多末期病患，她常對丈夫約翰說：「如果我得了絕症，千萬不要拖延我的痛苦，我重視生命品質勝過長度。」甚至開玩笑說「那時就直接斃了我吧」。 幾十年後，史蒂芬妮確診了 ALS（漸凍症）。當她最終無法呼吸被送往醫院時，護士問她是否要上呼吸器。令約翰震驚的是，史蒂芬妮點頭說「是」。 這不是法律問題，而是倫理問題：39 歲健康的史蒂芬妮，其實無法理解 59 歲在死亡邊緣掙扎的史蒂芬妮真正想要什麼。對後者而言，年輕的自己就像是一個試圖替她做生死決定的「陌生人」。

[00:07:00] 忒修斯之船 (The Ship of Theseus) 哲學上有個著名的「忒修斯之船」實驗：如果船的木板零件被逐一更換，直到最後沒有一塊原有的木頭，這還原本的那艘船嗎？ 我們人類也是如此。生物學上，細胞不斷更新；心理學上，我們大腦的塑性意味著你正不斷成為一個全新的人。

[00:10:22] 給未來自己的三個建議

1. 保持好奇心 (Stay Curious)： 既然 30 年後的你會是不同的人，你應該主動擔任「未來自我的建築師」。多接觸不同的人、拓展視野，主動塑造那個未來的你。

2. 實踐謙遜 (Practice Humility)： 當我們在社群媒體或聚會上發表言論時，請記得：未來最可能反對你的人，就是你自己。表達觀點時請多一分謙遜。

3. 展現勇氣 (Be Brave)： 未來的你雖然會變老、變弱，但也將擁有現在的你所不具備的智慧與能力。當你猶豫「我現在沒能力做某事」時，請說：「我『今天』沒有這個能力，但不代表『明天』沒有。」

總結

如果你能保持好奇、謙遜並展現勇氣，20 或 30 年後的你回頭看現在的自己，不會感到困惑或怨恨，而是會說一聲：「謝謝你」。

完整影片連結： YouTube 連結

You Don’t Actually Know What Your Future Self Wants | Shankar Vedantam | TED

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English Transcript Summary / Key Segments

1. The Soccer Story (The Childhood Self)

• [00:00:03] "When I was 12 years old, I fractured my foot playing soccer. I didnt tell my parents... because the next day my dad was taking me to see a movie—a soccer movie."

• [00:01:06] "I tell you the story today because four decades later, I dont really consider myself a soccer fan anymore... My 12-year-old self wouldnt just find this incomprehensible; my 12-year-old self would see this as a betrayal."

2. The Illusion of Continuity

• [00:02:23] "There is a paradox here. The paradox is: when we look backwards, we can see enormous changes in who we have become. But when we look forwards, we tend to imagine that were going to be the same people in the future."

• [00:02:51] "I call this the Illusion of Continuity. ... We dont imagine fundamentally that were going to have a different outlook or a different perspective."

3. The Story of John and Stephanie Rinka

• [00:03:34] Shankar tells the story of Stephanie, a nurse who always told her husband, John: "If I ever get a terminal illness, please do nothing to prolong my suffering."

• [00:05:00] Decades later, Stephanie was diagnosed with ALS (Lou Gehrigs disease). When she finally reached the point where she couldnt breathe, a nurse asked if she wanted a ventilator.

• [00:05:40] To John’s surprise, she said "Yes."

• [00:06:43] "Stephanie at age 39, when she was healthy, had no real conception of what Stephanie at age 59, with a terminal illness gasping for air, would really want. For the older Stephanie, her younger self might as well have been a stranger."

4. The Ship of Theseus

• [00:07:00] He references the philosophical thought experiment: If every plank of a ship is replaced over time, is it still the same ship?

• [00:07:46] "The people you are 10 years ago are not the people you are today. Biologically, you have become a different person... on an ongoing basis, you are constantly becoming a new person."

5. Three Pieces of Advice

• Lesson 1: Stay Curious (Be the Curator of your future self)

  • [00:10:51] "If you accept the idea that youre going to be a different person in 30 years time, you should play an active role crafting the person you are going to become. You should be the curator of your future self."

• Lesson 2: Practice Humility

  • [00:11:34] "Lets bear in mind that among the people who might disagree with us are our own future selves. So when we express views with great certitude and confidence, lets remember to add a touch of humility."

• Lesson 3: Be Brave

  • [00:12:51] "Our future selves are also going to have capacities and strengths and wisdom that we do not possess today... When I tell myself I dont think I have it in me to quit my job or learn a musical instrument at 52, what we really should be saying is: I dont have the capacity to do those things today. That doesnt mean I wont have the capacity to do those things tomorrow."

Conclusion

• [00:13:38] "If you can do these three things... then your future self will look back at you in 20 or 30 years... not with resentment or bewilderment, but will look back at you and say: Thank you."

這段演講的核心在於提醒我們：我們並非一個「完成品」，而是一個不斷變動的過程。唯有意識到「未來的我」可能與「現在的我」完全不同，我們才能做出更明智、更具包容性的生命抉擇。

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What is ALS? Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a fatal type of motor neuron disease. It causes progressive degeneration of nerve cells in the spinal cord and brain. Its often called Lou Gehrig disease after a famous baseball player who died from the disease.