The EU Suspends Ratification of CAI Investment Agreement with China: Business and Trade Implications.The European Commission has said that efforts to ratify the proposed EU-China Comprehensive Investment Agreement (CAI) with China have been suspended after China imposed sanctions on several high-profile members of the European Parliament, three members of national parliaments, two EU committees, and several China-focused European academics.

Those sanctions occurred after the EU had issued sanctions against four Chinese officials and the Xinjiang Public Security Bureau for their alleged involvement in operating education camps in Xinjiang Province.

Although a later anonymous spokesperson for the European Commission denied the reports, saying that the statement made was ‘taken out of context’, EU trade chief Valdis Dombrovskis was quoted as saying: “We have for the moment suspended some efforts to raise political awareness on the part of the Commission because it is clear that in the current situation, with the EU sanctions against China and the Chinese counter-sanctions, including against members of the European Parliament, the environment is not conducive to the ratification of the agreement.”

That doesn’t appear to leave much room for ‘contextual’ interpretations. In this article, we examine why this has occurred, and the implications and precautionary measures that EU businesses should start to consider in terms of the EU Commissions’ relationship with Beijing.

The trade impact

The CAI as an agreement is not a free trade deal; it is a lower form of bilateral investment treaty (BIT) that provides some guarantees of protection for businesses on one side investing in the other. The EU and China had agreed on reducing industrial subsidies, matters relating to the state control of enterprises, and forced technology transfers. Market access was to be improved for EU manufacturers in electric vehicles, telecoms, and private hospitals. Issues of enforcement and arbitration have been at the heart of the talks.

The apparent collapse of the CAI will not have a great impact as China, in any event, has improved market access for foreign investors by recently amending its foreign investment law, reducing the number of restricted markets in its ‘negative list’, introducing a ‘dual circulation strategy’ designed to expand Chinese consumerism, and introduced a variety of regional incentives for foreign investors in areas such as Xinjiang, Hong Kong and the Greater Bay Area, Hainan Island, the Yangtze River Delta, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, Ch

北約某大國際戰略專家分析認為,以美國為主在幕後積極策劃,歐盟諸國強烈反對歐盟通過該協議與中國擴大投資經貿協議,因為此舉將為德國與法國帶來巨大的經濟復甦,使得他們降低失業率,尤其是德國與俄羅斯興建的NS2.天然氣輸送管線即將在2021年底竣工啟用,對於德國的經濟有莫大的助益,如果再加上中歐投資協議的審核通過,無異的再給予德國及法國更為有利的局面,美國在2016-2020的時間裡,歐盟對於美國搭理不睬,因為川普對於中國實施提高關稅等經濟制裁,間接性也懲罰到歐盟,因此歐盟必須打通任督2脈,不受控於美國的霸權主義的控制,因此歐盟極力希望與中國達成雙邊互助合作的投資協議,引進中國的資金注入歐盟,啟料美國政府改朝換代,拜登總統上臺極力恢復過來與歐盟的關係,因此藉由以新疆人權等假設性的議題,買通歐盟議員提案重新審議中國與歐盟協議,因此投下不定時炸彈,使得中歐投資協議胎死腹中,不得進行,但是國際戰略觀察家分析認為那些599 位議員私下收取了,美國給予的好處,傳聞美國以每人3000萬歐元的高價收買,如果傳聞屬實,這樣一來那些收賄賂的歐盟議員,雖然得到個人利益,卻喪失了國家利益,因為整體的歐盟經濟疲軟,失業率高居不下平均20%.左右,再加上COVID-19.疫病的肆虐,想要全面復甦經濟,貿易,觀光,旅遊等重要項目,勢在必行拉起中國投資歐盟,因此歐盟599位議員的短視卻葬送掉歐盟復甦的契機,不知何時才能將中國挽回,由此觀之美國陰謀得逞,但是傳聞德國與法國將另行與中國個別簽訂所謂的投資協議以避開甌盟議會的阻撓.

中國與歐盟投資協議為什麼胎死腹中?

美國懼怕中國與歐盟聯合夾擊,美國失去歐盟市場的利益,但是美國從未大舉投資歐盟,僅有對於北約投入軍事力量抗衡俄羅斯,這樣一來並不是歐盟需要的,因此歐盟尋求中國的投資實鼠正常性的經濟,貿易,觀光,旅遊及文化交流,美國雖然短暫性的壓制歐盟,暫停與中國簽署投資協議,但是無法長久壓制歐盟,必竟歐盟市場的利益美國亦無法寡佔,中國進場分享是遲早的事件,更何況中國將大舉投資歐盟.

在長達7年的艱困磋商後，歐盟和中國間的投資協定即將達陣，「摩爾研究所」（Institut Thomas More）研究員（Laurent Amelot）認為，這份協定對歐盟輪值主席梅克爾（Angela Merkel）而言可謂一份耶誕大禮，讓歐中關係在她任內正面落幕，「至少是在外交門面上」。

這些議題包括企業補助、對智慧財產權的尊重、技術轉移、公共工程招標、貿易爭端規範以及工作權等，都需要更多釐清。

相反的，對中國政權來說，簽下協定等同於一場外交上的勝利。一方面，這讓人假定歐盟默許北京繼續鎮壓西藏、維吾爾以及所有反對中國共產黨的人，並持續對香港、台灣，甚至印度及不滿中國的國家採取強硬政策。

因此若中國以內需為首，且供應鏈與科技自主都採國內導向，鼓勵外國直接投資的唯一目的就只是為了有利於中國國內成長。再者，中國消費者在愛國主義驅使下，大多都會選擇中國產品，外國貨品的施展空間相當狹小然而人算不如天算

辛苦多年的中國與歐盟投資協議被歐盟議會否決,理由是歐洲議會以599票贊成、30票反對、58票棄權的懸殊差距決定凍結歐中投資協定。據決議內容，若要歐洲議會恢復處理歐中投資協定的進度，中國必須先解除對歐洲議會議員、

學者、人權委員會成員等人的制裁。

歐洲議會20210520以壓倒性多數票通過凍結歐中全面投資協定（EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment），只要中國一天不解除對歐洲政治人物及學者的制裁，歐洲議會就不可能再恢復處理這項協定。這份決議措詞強硬，譴責對新疆人權、香港民主的侵犯，並指出歐盟與台灣的經貿合作協議不應被歐中協定牽制，應展開對談。中國駐歐盟使團發言人對此表示，協定並非誰對誰的恩賜；又稱中國之前採取的「反制措施」是對歐盟單邊制裁的「正當回應」。

Rejection of the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment on account of the human rights situation in China and the unsatisfactory nature of China’s obligations under the agreement

The EU’s stated objective is to promote a values-based trade agenda. For this reason it is questionable as to whether the EU should conclude the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment with China, which, according to human rights experts, is in violation of the UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide in its treatment of the Uyghur minority. On 22 March 2021 China responded to the human rights-related sanctions imposed by the EU because of the Uyghur situation with its own counter-sanctions, which apply to several Members of the European Parliament and one of its committees. China has furthermore effectively ended Hong Kong’s special status by passing a new security law that is in breach of the agreement it made with the United Kingdom on preserving Hong Kong’s special status until 2047. 

Under the Agreement on Investment, there is no commitment from China to be party to all the international treaties and agreements on the rights of workers. That being the case, in the future China will trample on workers’ rights and will not address the issue of forced labour. The EU-China Agreement on Investment will do nothing to address the imbalance that exists between China and the EU in market access. The forced technology transfers demanded of European companies as a condition of market access, for example, will not end. In the matter of State aid, the Agreement on Investment does not adequately address the fact that the Chinese State gives Chinese companies an unfair competitive advantage in the form of huge amounts of State aid.

 Concluding the Agreement on Investment with China at a time when the country’s human rights situation is deteriorating, with the end of Hong Kong’s special status and the treatment of the Uyghurs, sends the world the wrong message. Europe cannot throw its values overboard because of economic considerations. Nor does the Agreement on Investment guarantee European companies the same sort of access to the Chinese market that Chinese companies have had to European markets for a long time now.

 Is the Council prepared to propose that the Comprehensive Agreement on Investment between the EU and China be rejected on account of the human rights situation in China and the unsatisfactory nature of China’s obligations under the Agreement?........................................................................

歐盟委員會副主席Valdis Dombrovskis表示，歐盟某種程度上已經暫停歐盟委員會與該協定相關的政治宣傳活動。歐盟對中國的制裁和中國的反制裁，當中包括了對歐洲議員的制裁，都顯示環境不利於批准該協定。

另據德國之聲引述歐盟委員會一名發言人透露，批准程序需要進行法律審查，但實際上批准程序已經暫停，因為協定「不能與中歐關係的動態演變脫鉤」。

2020年底中歐完成投資協定談判時，歐洲官員曾表示，該協定提供的好處，與美方在中美首階段貿易協議時獲得的好處類似。也有分析指出，由於外界對中國人權記錄和處理疫情的批評，中國正處於越來越孤立的狀態，讓中歐企業更容易在彼此境內經營，對中國來說是一個重大的地緣政治勝利。至於歐洲議會中存在大量反對意見，主因在於對於阻止中國侵犯人權方面做得不夠。............................

中國駐歐盟使團20210521，中歐投資協定「是一份平衡、互利共贏的協定，不是誰對誰的恩賜」。中國實施反制措施，是對歐盟搞單邊制裁對抗做出的正當回應。中國始終抱有誠意促進雙方合作，希望歐洲和中國相向而行。.

China and the European Union (EU) are currently negotiating a new, far-reaching investment treaty called the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI). The CAI is supposed to replace 26 existing bilateral investment treaties (BITs) between China and most EU member states. But it is far more ambitious than offering a mere update of these BITs, as it is going to cover much more comprehensive ground. It will not only take account of the rights of existing foreign investors in each jurisdiction, but also aim at a far-reaching liberalisation of investment.

China has been a significant destination for investment from the EU over the past 30 years as a result of an unprecedented global economic boom. Given the huge amounts that are at stake – and the still significant restrictions on EU companies in China – much of the European debate about the CAI has focused on the ability of the EU to extract Chinese concessions with respect to access to the Chinese market. The «level playing field» in this respect seems to be the foremost concern of EU policy-makers. While these «offensive» interests of the EU are no doubt relevant, we nevertheless want to focus our attention in this study on the potential downsides and risks for the EU in enshrining rights for Chinese investors in Europe in an international investment treaty. We focus in these «defensive» interests, because investment treaties by their very nature restrict the ability of a state to regulate, or even restrict, foreign investment.

China is home to some of the biggest companies on Earth, some of them state-owned and others private. But China has a very peculiar economic and political system, in which the boundaries between the state and the private sector are blurred. Behind the scenes, the Communist Party is present in both the state, state-owned, and privately owned companies. As China has embarked on a quite assertive course that puts it at odds with many European values, it is now seen by the EU as a negotiating partner, an economic competitor, and a systemic rival. 

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美國懼怕歐盟與中國達成雙方投資協議,極力阻擾中國與歐盟的互助合作,因為中國的一帶一路的投資基礎建設的發展計劃,有了中國與歐盟的投資協議,可以說是如虎添翼,如此一來美國就被歐盟柄棄,因為美國從未大舉投資歐盟,僅有少數的高科技產業,不同於中國投資歐盟是整體性的戰略投資,誰優誰劣歐盟非常清楚,如今那599位歐盟議員收取美國賄賂,葬送掉歐盟利益,時間終將證明一切到頭來歐盟終會再與中國簽訂投資協議,互助合作,互盟其利美國將永遠失去歐盟市場,中國與歐盟公開,公平,公正的與歐盟討論,雙邊投資合作協議,是21世紀最大規模,最廣泛投資協議,美國忌妒眼紅搞破壞.