Trump call for Chinese warships hits sensitive topic for Xi.

U.S. President Donald Trump’s demand for China to send warships to the Strait of Hormuz will almost certainly be rejected out of hand. But it unwittingly touches a sensitive debate simmering among foreign policy thinkers in Beijing: Should President Xi Jinping start using his military to shape geopolitical outcomes?

China hasn’t fought a major war in nearly half a century, and there’s no sign it’ll get involved in an operation so risky that even U.S. allies are staying away. Chinese state media dismissed his demands as an attempt to spread the risk “of a war that Washington started and can’t finish,” while Trump has requested a delay to his summit with Xi to give him time to deal with Iran.

“What if Iran attacks the U.S. Navy but accidentally hits the Chinese ships?” said Wu Xinbo, a scholar who heads Fudan University’s Center for American Studies and has previously advised the Foreign Ministry. “Why would we get mixed up in this mess? The risk is simply too high.”

At the same time, Wu and others see a rare strategic opening to construct a world order more suited to China’s interests as Trump upends the rules-based system built by the U.S. after World War II. While most of them advocate a multilateral system centered on the United Nations that gives a greater say to emerging economies, divergences start to appear over the extent to which Beijing should use its economic, diplomatic and military power to secure its interests overseas.

Proponents of a more assertive China want to see Xi expand the nation’s military presence abroad, recalibrate its longstanding doctrine of non-interference in affairs of other nations and do more to bring Taiwan under Beijing’s jurisdiction once and for all.  

.For now, Beijing’s response to Trump’s upheaval over Iran has followed a familiar playbook: condemning U.S. actions, calling for diplomatic solutions and casting China as a responsible power. China has avoided using force to defend diplomatic allies like Venezuela and Iran, with all of Beijing’s security partnerships apart from with North Korea deliberately avoiding any type of mutual defense commitment on par with NATO’s Article 5..

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At an annual press briefing earlier this month, Foreign Minister Wang Yi presented China as a pillar of stability, touting Xi’s vague initiatives on global governance and security as an antidote to the chaos wrought by “unilateral bullying” — a veiled swipe at Trump. He also warned of the dangers to the world of acting like the U.S.

“Imagine if China, like some traditional powers, were keen on carving out spheres of influence in its surrounding regions, instigating conflict,” Wang said. “Would the situation in Asia still be as stable as it is today?”

.The best strategy, some Chinese strategists say, may be for Beijing to sit back and watch as the U.S. hurts itself. An imbroglio in the Middle East stands to again divert Washington’s attention and resources from Asia — a dynamic advantageous to China..

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