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.Is this how World War III begins? .

IT  IS A REAL WAR GAME .  RUSSIA vs USA.

第3次世界大戰爆發 俄羅斯的軍隊將再度攻擊德國柏林取得勝利.

.An alleged leak to the press by the German MOD -- "Alliance Defence 2025", a hypothetical scenario of a NATO-Russia war breaking out in 2025.

The recipient claiming receipt of the scenario is the BILD newspaper, a tabloid that the intellectual classes like to sniff at, but that can be a sensible choice for a deliberate leak aimed at either shaping public opinion or sending a signal to hostile governments - or both. (Deniability is higher, and the potential domestic political meltdown lower, than with an established news source. On that basis, and given current events, I believe it is highly likely that the leak is genuine.) The alleged scenario is a political-military storyline, a "road to war" scenario which ends with large deployments of Russian and NATO troops facing off on the Alliances eastern flank prior to a possible full-scale confrontation. It uses specific dates in the near future (not always the case with scenarios for exercises). Interestingly, the alleged document (not shown by BILD) is said to be classified only at the restricted level (Verschlusssache – Nur für den Dienstgebrauch). That means it is judged that the contents are only "disadvantageous" to the national interest if released to unauthorised persons, but not damaging let alone dangerous. This is what BILD says of the scenario (translation):.

 The secret Bundeswehr scenario “Alliance Defense 2025” begins in February 2024. Russia is starting another wave of mobilization and is calling up an additional 200,000 men into the army.

The Kremlin then begins a spring offensive - strengthened by faltering Western support in the direction of Kyiv - which will achieve greater success by June 2024 and push the Ukrainian army back little by little.

Russias initially covert and later increasingly open attack on the West begins in July.Severe cyber attacks and other forms of hybrid warfare, mainly in the Baltics, are leading to ever new crises. Russia begins incitement of ethnic Russian minorities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. .

.There are clashes which, according to the scenario, Russia is using as an excuse to start the large-scale exercise “Zapad 2024” with 50,000 soldiers in western Russia and Belarus from September [Note: Russia stated in Sept. 2023 that it would not hold this exercise given the fighting in Ukraine] But as in 2021, Russia abuses its alleged maneuvers in Belarus for a massive troop buildup on the border with Poland and Lithuania. In October 2024, Russia moves troops and medium-range missiles to Kaliningrad and continues to arm its exclave while issuing false propaganda of an impending NATO attack. The Kremlins secret goal: to conquer the Suwalki Gap - the narrow Polish-Lithuanian corridor between Belarus and Kaliningrad. From December 2024 there would be an artificially induced “border conflict” and “riots with numerous deaths” in the Suwalki Gap area. Just when the USA could be more or less leaderless for a few weeks after the possible election defeat of Joe Biden, Russia repeats the 2014 invasion of Eastern Ukraine but on NATO soil. Shortly thereafter, an extraordinary meeting of the UN Security Council takes place, in which Russia accuses the West of preparing to attack Russia. Poland and the Baltic states report an increasing threat from Russia to the North Atlantic Council in January 2025. Russia uses propaganda to turn the true threat situation into its opposite and to move additional troops to the Baltics and Belarus in March 2025. In Putins puppet state of Belarus alone, the Kremlin would now have two tank divisions, a mechanized infantry division and a division headquarters stationed - a total of more than 70,000 soldiers. In May 2025, NATO decides on “measures for credible deterrence” in order to forestall a Russian attack on the Suwalki Gap from the direction of Belarus and Kaliningrad. On Day X, NATOs Supreme Commander orders the transfer of 300,000 soldiers to the eastern flank, including 30,000 Bundeswehr soldiers The scenario ends 30 days after Day X. Whether Russia will be deterred by the NATO deployment remains an open question in the exercise scenario. Comment: the scenario contains classical elements. Much has been written, some of it in the public domain, about a scenario of Russian aggression against one or more of our Baltic state Allies. However, leaking this now (if thats what occurred) is interesting. Perhaps a way of shaking up a lethargic political leadership. Perhaps also a way of making the public understand what the future may be like. And last but not least, perhaps a signal to Moscow that Berlin is not asleep at the wheel.

《德國畫報》（Bild）近日揭露一份題為「聯盟防禦2025」（Alliance Defence 2025）的機密文件，揭示俄羅斯將在18個月內，將烏克蘭衝突升級為對北約的全面戰爭.?

德國國防部一份外流機密文件指出，俄羅斯總統普欽（VladimirPutin）恐再次以白俄羅斯為跳板，在2025年對北約（NATO）發動攻擊，導致第三次世界大戰。

德國機密情報顯示出俄羅斯極為可能性於2025 年對北約NATO.發動攻擊導致餘第3次世界大戰爆發?.

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根據文件,俄羅斯將在2024/02月動員20萬大軍,於春季對烏克蘭發動新攻勢,接著2024/06月在西方對烏軍援不斷減少下,取得大進展。隨後普欽將乘勝追擊,2024/07月在「波羅的海三小國」愛沙尼亞,拉脫維亞和立陶宛發動網路攻擊煽動暴力,聲稱這些國家境內的俄羅斯少數民族成為攻擊目標。此舉將導致這三國發生衝突,普欽將以此為藉口,於9月前向白俄羅斯和俄羅斯西部部署5萬俄軍進行大規模演習。

2024/10月,普欽將調動軍隊和中程飛彈至波蘭和立陶宛間的俄羅斯西部城市加里寧格勒（Kaliningrad）,同時普欽及其親信將繼續大秀軍事肌肉,稱北約正準備攻擊俄羅斯並威脅其國家安全。

文件指出普欽的主要目標將是攻擊位於立陶宛/波蘭邊界的狹長地帶「蘇瓦烏基走廊」（Suwalki Gap）,立波兩國曾爭奪該地區的控制權,但如今它是波蘭領土,也是歐洲大陸和波羅的海國家間唯一的陸地邊界,具重要戰略和軍事意義。

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.2025年1月,北約將針對俄羅斯威脅召開特別會議,2025/03月,俄羅斯將向波羅的海國家和白俄羅斯派遣更多部隊,普欽將集結7萬士兵。2025/05月北約將再次開會,討論俄羅斯日益嚴重的威脅,並商討採取威懾措施,阻止俄羅斯對蘇瓦烏基走廊發動攻擊。

在一個名為「X 天」的日期,北約將在其東翼部署30萬士兵（3萬來自德國）,抵禦俄羅斯即將發動的襲擊,接著便可能發生第三次世界大戰。

俄羅斯軍事戰略專家指出,有關德國透露出所謂的機密切文件, 那麼指示表示出德國如何參與2025 北約NATO.的聯合軍事演習的部份文件而已,並不能代表俄羅斯的戰爭意圖, 北約只有假借用由德國方面透露出:"機密文件"? 事實上德國總理舒茲在2023 年就曾經表示德國將擴大軍事預算高達1000 億歐元之譜,2023-2026.這4年間逐步完成德國擴軍計劃,並且包括更新軍事裝備,好抵抗將來俄羅斯的攻擊,同時美國駐紮於德國的軍隊相距減少,因為美國移師東縣,注重於波蘭及羅馬尼亞的駐軍,以便在較短的時間反制俄羅斯的攻擊,尤其是波羅的海3小國, 如此一來美國可以真的與俄羅斯軍隊正面交鋒,而導致於實際的第3次世界大戰爆發? 

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俄羅斯克里姆林宮內的軍事戰略顧問表示,早已準備妥當,有關北約NATO.的德國迪所謂「聯盟防禦2025」（Alliance Defence 2025）的機密文件? 對於身經百戰的俄羅斯軍隊而言,它們只是"紙上談兵", 像似小朋友玩過家家的遊戲, 其實俄羅斯比較在意的是美國如何領導統御及指揮調動北約30個國際的軍隊,進行抵抗俄羅斯的軍隊,西進歐洲內陸的真正的戰爭策略與作戰計劃..

話說穿喇第3次世界大戰就是美國與俄羅斯正面交鋒的戰爭 其他北約各國的軍隊只是旁觀者搖旗吶喊 助長威而已 鹿死誰手 ? 尚未知曉? 總而且炎之後 歐洲大陸就算是爆發第3次世界大戰的話那麼戰後的重建釉要尋求中國的協助參與重建工程並且融資貸款給予戰敗的北約各國至於美國可能性永遠無法立足於歐洲大陸只有退回北美洲罷了.

傳聞中國在於第3次世界大戰扔然保持"中立" ,不派遣軍隊參戰於任何一方,所謂的紅藍對抗(俄羅斯VS.美國/北約) 但是機密文件顯示出中國將派遣10 萬名醫護及後勤補級軍事人員,協助參戰國野戰醫院的設立搶救傷害及時協助,戰死者的遺體運送後方,炊事飲食的支援,包括戰爭時期的軍隊日用品的供給,等等雜事

\換句話說.時間彷彿又回到1914-1918.的第一次世界大戰的話場景?. 

Russia Responds to Repor About War With NATO.

Moscow has mocked an article in a German newspaper which says Berlin is preparing for an armed conflict between NATO and Russia.

Bild said a classified document it had seen showed how the German armed forces, the Bundeswehr, were preparing for an attack by Moscow on the alliances eastern flank and outlined a "path to conflict" between Russia and NATO, according to a translation.The document seen by the mass-circulation tabloid, which appears to be a training scenario, has not been independently verified. Newsweek has contacted the German Defense Ministry and NATO for comment.

Russian foreign affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova dismissed the predictions as the kind you would find in a "horoscope."

Central to the case for continued military support among Ukraines allies to fight Russian aggression is the argument that it is fighting for all the West. In December 2023, President Joe Biden said that if Vladimir Putin won in Ukraine, Russia would attack an alliance member, a claim dismissed by the Russian president as "complete nonsense."

Zakharova derided the reported scenario in a post on Telegram. "I read the German secret plan leaked into the Bild information gutter. Its like a mighty horoscope from last year for Pisces in Cancer," she said.

I suppose that the analysis was undertaken by the German Foreign Ministry headed by [Annalena] Baerbock.".

Under Article 5 of NATOs treaty, an armed attack on an alliance member is considered an attack on all and would force a collective response. Kyivs allies have tried to provide aid without getting directly involved in the war.Bild said the document "Alliance Defense 2025" outlined a scenario in which escalation could start as early as February, when Russia would launch another wave of mobilization.The article said that the report it had seen outlined a scenario where, emboldened by faltering Western support for Kyiv, Moscow would launch a spring offensive that could push back the Ukrainian army.

By July, Russia could start conducting cyberattacks and other forms of hybrid warfare, mainly in the Baltic states of Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania, where they would incite ethnic Russian minorities

.Russia could use these clashes as a pretext to deploy troops to the region via its Zapad 2024 exercise involving 50,000 troops in western Russia and Belarus from September.

Border conflicts" and "unrests with numerous casualties" were possible in the "Suwalki corridor" between Belarus and Kaliningrad along the Polish-Lithuanian border by December and Russia, according to the report which predicted the deployment of hundreds of thousands of NATO troops and an "outbreak of war in the summer of 2025."

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