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Looking South: A Conversation with GEN Laura Richardson on Security Challenges in Latin America.

Dr. Kathleen McInnis: Central and South America is, arguably, a decisive region in today’s strategic competitions with authoritarian actors. For example, the People’s Republic of China is doing things like investing in critical infrastructure across the region, including strategically useful ports, as well as cyber and space facilities that could be used by Beijing’s civilian and military agencies. Russia continues its supports of authoritarian and malign actors across the region, including through disinformation campaigns. And those are only part of the strategic challenges to the United States that are emanating from that region. Migration, transnational criminal organizations, illegal fishing – all of these are on the agenda of United States Southern Command.

I’m Dr. Kathleen McInnis, the director of the Smart Women, Smart Power Initiative, and my colleague – I’m joined by my colleague Kari Bingen, the director of the Aerospace Security Project at CSIS. And we are delighted to welcome General Laura Richardson, the commander of United States Southern Command, to CSIS today to talk about her perspective on what’s happening down south.

CSIS..LR.report said CHINA so strong .?.

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2023 Posture Statement to Congress :Army Gen. Laura Richardson, commander of U.S. Southern Command, testified before the Senate Armed Services Committee . 2023

EXCERPTS FROM HOUSE ARMED SERVICES COMMITTEE TESTIMONY, MARCH 8, 2023

China’s expanding influence in Latin America and the Caribbean:

“The world is at an inflection point. Our partners in the Western Hemisphere with whom we are bonded by trade, shared values democratic traditions, family ties, are feeling the impacts of external interference and coercion. The Peoples Republic of China (PRC) -- our pacing challenge -- continues to expand its economic, diplomatic, technological, informational and military influence in Latin America and the Caribbean. The PRC has the capability and intent to eschew international norms advance its bearing its brand of authoritarianism, and amass power and influence at the expense of these democracies. The PRC has expanded its ability to extract resources, establish ports, manipulate governments through predatory investment practices, and build potential dual-use space facilities, the most space facilities in any combatant command region.”.

..China is moving in a big way into Latin America, a traditional sphere of US influence. Map: Ole Miss Center for Open Source Analysis. .

美軍南方司令部司令（Laura Richardson）在華府智庫戰略國際研究中心(CSIS)的一項活動上表示,中國已進入美國南方「紅區」。.

「中國位於我們家園的20碼線上。」LR.引用美式橄欖球的比喻,形容中國在與美國的競賽中已接近達陣得分。..

換句話說「或者我們可以說,中國處在美國家園的第一或第二島鏈。」.除此之外美國南方司令,陸軍上將LR.指出,中國近期在南美洲的行動,投資一個價值30億美元的貨櫃港口,在麥哲倫海峽附近建立太空監測站以及在3個南美國家經營鋰礦業務,已經對美國安全構成的風險越來越大。

LR.表示中國正意圖取代美國在南美洲的領導地位。由於巴拿馬運河,麥哲倫海峽和德雷克海峽需要保持對海上貿易的開放,她對中國的國營及民營公司在西半球擴大軍民兩用業務的能力感到擔憂。.

LR警告中國航天局在阿根廷設立用於探索月球背面的太空觀察站和衛星,也可用於飛彈瞄準,相較於上一世紀的古巴飛彈危機有過之而無不極,除此之外美國情報得知,中國已經巷委內瑞拉購買一處小島,表面上是進行環境保護研究以及石油探勘工程,實際上中國計劃在該小島建立導向飛彈基地,可以直接攻擊美國本土,美國軍事情報得知,該小島的導向飛彈基地完全無人化自動控制,由中國衛星監測實施,對美國的隱形攻擊,換句話說當中國與美國爆發戰爭時,該小島自動化發射導向飛彈攻擊美國之後,就自我毀屍滅跡,讓美國找不到證據,如此一來世界上首創的導向飛彈攻擊性戰略與戰術將由中國領導創造,令美國震驚不得不防範中國.

國際軍事戰略觀察家分析認為,中國利用反封鎖反包圍的戰略計劃,突破美國在太平洋地區的第一線島鏈及第二島鏈的封鎖,反而繞道由中南美洲對於美國進行反封鎖反包圍的第一線島鏈及第二島鏈,如此一來令美國震驚中國如此的進行實戰化的演練達到兵不厭詐的兵戎相見的實兵實彈的演習,正在逐漸的,侵蝕美國後院的中南美洲,套句中國的俗話說,木已成舟,生米煮成熟飯,美國只有接受事實..

.China expands economic reach in US’ backyard

China’s strong economic presence in Latin America and Caribbean owes largely to US neglect of the region..In early March 2023, General Laura Richardson, head of the United States Southern Command, told a US congressional hearing that Chinese actions in South America posed a threat to US safety. According to General Richardson, China is on a relentless march to replace the United States as the leader in the region.

While China’s presence in the region has grown substantially in the past decade, it is unlikely that China will replace the United States as the dominant political, economic and military power in Latin America for the foreseeable future.

On the economic front, China has made inroads into South America and the Caribbean, a region where US power once went unchallenged. Starting in the late 1990s, Chinese interest in South America and the Caribbean began to grow.

In order to sustain its unprecedented economic growth China began to search the globe for oil and other raw materials. In 2000, Chinese trade with the region totalled US$12 billion, reaching $314.8 billion in 2021. In 2023, China is the largest trading partner of nine countries in the region: Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Cuba, Chile, Peru, Paraguay, Uruguay and Venezuela.

While the growth in trade between China and the region is impressive, the United States remains Latin America and the Caribbean’s largest trading partner. In 2020, US trade with the region was $758.2 billion. But 71 per cent of this trade was with Mexico. In 2021, Chinese foreign direct investment in the region totalled $130 billion.

Before the Covid-19 pandemic, China was the biggest lender to the region, with Chinese development banks having issued $66.5 billion in loans — mostly for infrastructure projects that offer Chinese companies better access to the region’s rich natural resources. A small portion of these loans were provided under China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

While China’s economic footprint in the region has increased significantly, the United States and the European Union remain the largest foreign investors, accounting for 36 per cent and 34% of total investment respectively.

As China faces an economic slowdown due to the Covid-19 pandemic, Chinese loans have dried up. When countries in the region fall into financial crisis, Western institutions such as the International Monetary Fund have provided the lion’s share of structural adjustment loans, not China..The extent to which China’s economic gains in the region have resulted in political and diplomatic influence is unclear. While China has been Brazil’s largest trading partner for over a decade, tensions have arisen under both left- and right-wing Brazilian governments..

In Panama, after relentless US pressure, several multibillion dollar infrastructure contracts initially awarded to Chinese companies were cancelled and given to South Korean and Japanese companies.

During her testimony to Congress, General Richardson also warned that China has increased its support for anti-US regimes in the region including Venezuela, Cuba and Nicaragua.

But with the exception of Venezuela, Chinese investment and trade with these countries is minimal compared with its presence in most other countries in the region. In the cases of Cuba and Nicaragua, their desperate economic situations and US sanctions render them less attractive to China.

In the defence and security sector, China has made modest inroads into the region. While the number of South American and Caribbean military and security officers going to China for training has increased, the United States remains the primary destination for training thousands of officers from the region. The United States has dozens of bases and other installations throughout the region and is the region’s ultimate guarantor of security.

While the power of the United States in the region remains solid, challenges on the economic front are increasing. No other power — not even the Soviet Union — has been able to challenge US economic dominance of the region...

Apart from in Cuba, Soviet trade and aid to the region was negligible and its diplomatic influence limited. While most countries in the region want to maintain close ties with the United States, they also want the benefits of China’s massive trade and investment flows.

On the eve of the pandemic, total trade between China and Latin America had hit $314.8 billion. Chinese foreign direct investment in Latin America was about $130 billion and net development lending by the China Development Bank and Export–Import Bank of China was about $66.5 billion. Taking 2000 as the baseline, the figures in all three categories have

grown exponentially.

While trade and FDI inflows dipped slightly during the pandemic, Chinese development lending to the region dropped to zero in 2020. With just two years of operation in Latin America and the Caribbean, the BRI accounts for only a few million of the $43.5 billion disbursed to the region by Chinese policy banks between 2015 and 2019..China’s growing presence and rising economic importance to the Global South should be expected. But China was able to build such a strong presence in Latin America and the Caribbean in large part due to US neglect of the region.

The United States can no longer take the region for granted. Perhaps Washington should start treating Latin America as its front yard rather than its backyard.

Loro Horta is a diplomat and scholar from Timor-Leste. He has served as Timor-Leste’s ambassador to Cuba and counselor at the Timor-Leste embassy in Beijing..

Chinas take-over in Americas back yard: How Beijing has spent $140BILLION on ports, roads, and power plants in Latin America and the Caribbean as Cuba signs a new energy deal while US influence fades

Cuba has agreed a new deal with China to upgrade its power grid, inviting Chinese firms to invest and build
It is just the latest of Beijings loans, building projects, and investments to Latin America and the Caribbean
China has also rapidly increased trade with the region which rose from $12bn in 2000 to $315bn in 2020
America has been muscled out of its own back yard, as diplomats warn the US is giving up without a fight