..

Russia-Ukraine war in maps and charts:

As the Russian offensive enters its 365th day, we track where battles are taking place and the human cost of war.

As the Russian offensive enters its 365th day, we track where the fighting is happening and how we got here.  Who controls what in Ukraine?

Ukrainian forces have repelled 90 Russian attacks in the northeast and east over the past 24 hours, the military said on Thursday.20230223.

U.S. Who controls what in eastern Ukraine?

Russian forces have continued to conduct ground attacks throughout the Donetsk region front line and secured marginal territorial gains around Bakhmut, according to the Institute for the Study of War.

.

.

Who controls what in southern Ukraine?

Two civilians have been killed in Russian shelling of the Kherson region in southern Ukraine, according to regional officials..

.Where are people fleeing to?

According to the United Nations refugee agency, there have been 18.8 million border crossings out of Ukraine since the Russian invasion began in February 2022. Many people have sought refuge in neighbouring countries.

The latest data show 9,751,646 border crossings into Poland, 1,998,875 to Romania, 2,852,395 to Russia, 2,251,086 to Hungary, 1,197,429 to Slovakia, 775,837 to Moldova and 16,705 into Belarus. Most of those displaced have been women and children. Men aged 18 to 60 have been asked to remain in Ukraine to fight.

US send Ukraine tanks;

.美國繼續提供烏克蘭軍火武器,擴大戰爭,延長戰爭.

俄烏戰爭遊戲周年紀念版專輯.

烏克蘭的阿兵哥死傷慘重,他們是烏合之眾,上戰場當炮灰,平均壽命僅有4小時,因為許多是被強迫徵兵或是以抓壯丁的方式入伍參戰..

Ｒｕｓｓｉａ／Ｕukraine war one year anniversary　．

After a year of war in Ukraine, all signs point to more misery with no end in sight．

Nearly a year since Russian forces rolled into Ukraine, there are no real signs of a way out of the conflict. Neither side appears primed for an outright military victory, and progress at the negotiating table seems just as unlikely.

Neither side has released figures lately, but analysts estimate that about 100,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the war so far. By comparison, Ukraine has seen some 200,000 killed or wounded in action, and 30,000 civilian deaths.

Meanwhile, neither Russian leader Vladimir Putin nor Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy shows any signs of backing down and abandoning one of the largest military conflicts since the end of World War II. For the civilians caught in the crossfire, that means the bloodshed and suffering brought on by the war has no discernible end.

"Animosity between Russia and Ukraine could sustain this conflict for a long time," says Samuel Charap, a senior political scientist at the Rand Corp.

Within days of its initial assault one year ago this Friday, Russias apparent strategy of a swift capture of Kyiv and toppling of Zelenskyys government came face to face with an inconvenient reality: Ukrainian resistance was much stronger than anticipated, thanks in part to years of Western training and arms. Moscows forces were unequal to the task. A 40-mile-long stalled Russian convoy along a main highway leading into the capital became symbolic of the Kremlins military failure.

.

．

美國是俄烏戰爭遊戲的幕後影武者最大利益得到者．

烏克蘭的阿兵哥死傷超過３０餘萬人,烏克蘭的老百姓將近８００餘萬人,逃亡遠離家園,流浪歐洲成為難民,過者寄人籬下的苦難日子,烏克蘭總統澤連司基,毫無羞恥心,不願意和平談判結束戰爭,他早已被美國收買操縱,任憑美國的擺佈,他要求美國及NATO.繼續提供軍火武器玩弄戰爭遊戲,他看不到可憐的烏克蘭老百姓的眼淚與悲傷,保守估計烏克蘭的老百姓死亡超過3萬人以上,美國不僅沒有促進和平談判反而火上加油,加強提供烏克蘭軍事武器,繼續玩弄戰爭遊戲,反正死亡的是烏克蘭的阿兵哥以及NATO.的僱傭兵..

.

.

烏克蘭的難民流亡逃避戰爭到歐洲已經超過800餘萬人.

USA/NATO.的僱傭兵保守估計將近1萬餘人陣亡.

..

烏克蘭的阿兵哥死亡人數日益增加...

.A Ukrainian flag adorns an electrical post in Kupiansk, in the Kharkiv region, on Feb. 13,/2023. nearly a year after the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

After a year of war in Ukraine, all signs point to more misery with no end in sight.

．Nearly a year since Russian forces rolled into Ukraine, there are no real signs of a way out of the conflict. Neither side appears primed for an outright military victory, and progress at the negotiating table seems just as unlikely.

Neither side has released figures lately, but analysts estimate that about 200,000 Russian troops have been killed or wounded in the war so far. By comparison, Ukraine has seen some 100,000 killed or wounded in action, and 30,000 civilian deaths..

.As Russias conventional military has lost credibility, Putin has hinted at the possible use of tactical nuclear weapons, a move that President Biden has said would be a "serious mistake."

But while the nightmarish threat is real, Harvards Plokhy doesnt think Putin would ever follow through, given the likelihood of a full military response from the West."Putin is not suicidal. The war is there to preserve his position in power," he says.Where does that leave things?

Russias heavy losses of military equipment and ammunition have been widely reported, and the Kremlin has been forced to turn to North Korea for rockets and artillery and to Iran for drones.

"Russia is significantly diminished," says Plokhy, the author of several books, including The Russo-Ukrainian War: The Return of History, due for release in May.However, the idea that Russia is simply running out of what it needs to wage war is mostly "wishful thinking," according to Alexseev. "In Russia, defense factories are working in three or four shifts."

Despite Western sanctions choking off Russian supplies of microchips needed in high-tech weapons, the Kremlins forces still pack a powerful punch, he says.

.Neither can Putin politically afford to sign a negotiated deal if it means giving up any territory, according to Vladislav Zubok, a history professor at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

"Putin staked his whole political career on the annexation of Crimea" and isnt about to let it go easily, Zubok says..A total military victory seems unlikely for either side

A military solution looks just as unlikely, despite seemingly spectacular gains by Ukraine on the battlefield resulting in heavy losses of Russian soldiers and armor.Kyiv may be feeling confident about a successful counteroffensive that retook large swaths of territory — a stunning blitz to win back the cities of Kharkiv and Kherson. However, there are no easy victories on the horizon for either side, Charap says."I dont think [Ukraine has] the ability to completely eliminate the Russian militarys capacity to pose a threat to their country,"Ukraine is over..

Zelenskyy has publicly said that his countrys forces will retake Crimea, a move the Ukrainian leadership believes would precipitate a coup against Putin and ultimately secure Ukraines borders. Most analysts agree.

俄羅斯紀念死亡參戰的士兵,美國軍事情報估計俄羅斯軍隊死傷在10萬餘人左右,普京出席葬禮心情沉重悲傷.

.

Participants of a memorial ceremony including members of the Youth Army movement take part in the funeral of 38 pro-Russian soldiers, who were killed amid the conflict with Ukrainian armed forces, at a cemetery in Luhansk, Russian-controlled Ukraine, November 11, 2022. ..

西方戰略觀察家分析認為俄羅斯最終贏得戰爭勝利,但是付出慘重代價,俄烏戰爭也影響到世界經濟的發展,尤其是歐洲糧食,能源,民生必需品短缺,價格高漲,通貨膨脹嚴重,社會問題層出不窮犯罪行為增加,走私日益昌盛...

Many European countries are heavily dependent on Russian energy, particularly gas through several vital pipelines. Even if the conflict comes to an end, there is a possibility that the harsh economic sanctions on Russia would make it very difficult for these countries to be able to import gas.

Meanwhile, oil prices surged on Wednesday as supply disruptions mounted following sanctions on Russian banks, while traders scrambled to seek alternative oil sources in an already tight market.

Brent crude futures rose by more than $8, touching a peak of $113.02 a barrel, the highest since June 2014, before easing to $111.53, up by $6.56 or 6.3 per cent by 0950 GMT.

US West Texas Intermediate (WTI) crude futures also jumped more than $8 a barrel, hitting the highest since August 2013 before losing some steam to trade up $6.39 or 6.2 per cent to $109.80 a barrel.

.國際貨幣基金會IMF & 國際戰略專家分析俄烏戰爭如下10大重點:

1. Conflict at a glance

After months of tensions and intense diplomacy, Russian forces invaded Ukraine. Explosions were heard across the country. Kyiv declared martial law, saying Ukraine will defend itself. Below is a summary of the conflict at a glance.

2. History of the USSR

Russia and Ukraine were part of the 15 Soviet republics that made up the Soviet Union. Following the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991, Ukraine declared independence on August 24. The map below shows when each of these countries declared independence.

(Al Jazeera)

3. Political leadership

After independence, Ukraine moved to shed its Russian imperial legacy and forge increasingly close ties with the West.

Over the past 30 years, Ukraine has been led by seven presidents. The country has had a rocky path towards democracy with two revolutions, first in 2005 and then in 2014. Both times, protesters rejected Russia’s supremacy and sought a path to join the European Union and NATO.

By comparison, Russia has been led by three presidents, with Putin having been in office for 17 years. In 2021, Putin, the former agent of the Soviet Union’s KGB security services, signed a law that essentially enables him to stay in power until 2036.

Putin has repeatedly claimed that Russians and Ukrainians belong to “one people” and are part of the historical “Russian civilisation” that also includes neighbouring Belarus. Ukrainians reject his claims.

(Al Jazeera)

4. How big are Ukraine and Russia?

Ukraine has an estimated population of 44 million – the seventh-largest in Europe. The country comprises 24 regions, known as oblasts. The country’s population has declined since the 1990s with fertility rates among the lowest in the world. As of 2020, Ukraine’s fertility rate was just 1.2. For context, in order for a population to remain stable, an overall total fertility rate of 2.1 is required.

Ukraine is the second-largest country in Europe, after Russia. At 603,550sq km (233,031sq miles), Ukraine is a bit smaller than the US state of Texas, about three times smaller than India, half the size of South Africa and about two and a half times the size of the United Kingdom.

(Al Jazeera)

5. NATO in Europe

NATO is the world’s most powerful military alliance. Comprising 30 nations, its primary role is to protect its member states by political and military means.

Russia opposes NATO bases near its borders and has asked for written guarantees that NATO will not expand eastwards. One of the Kremlin’s central demands is that Ukraine never be allowed to join NATO – a move it considers a red line. The United States has refused to concede to this demand..

6. Military head to head

Russia has one of the most powerful militaries in the world and ranks among the top five defence spenders.

In 2020, Russia spent $61.7bn on its military, which accounted for 11.4 percent of government spending. In comparison, Ukraine spent $5.9bn on its armed forces, or 8.8 percent of government spending, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute.

Since tensions began, NATO allies, fearful of a potential ground invasion by Russia, have stepped up support for Kyiv by sending military equipment to Ukraine.

.

(Al Jazeera)

7. Oil and gas resources

Russia and Ukraine are both rich in oil and gas. Russia has the world’s highest proven gas reserves at 48,938 billion cubic metres. More than 70 percent of the country’s gas reserves are held by Gazprom, a state-owned energy giant.

Russia supplies about one-third of Europe’s natural gas. US sanctions over the conflict could disrupt that supply, exacerbating Europe’s energy crisis. On February 22, Germany halted the certification of Nord Stream 2, an $11.6bn Russian gas pipeline project that was designed to move 151 million cubic metres of gas a day into Europe.

Russia also has some of the largest proven oil reserves, at 80 billion barrels, or 5 percent of the world’s total.

Ukraine, too, has a sizeable reserve of oil and gas at 395 million barrels and 349 billion cubic metres, respectively. The country sits at the crossroads between the West and Russia, and plays a key role in delivering Russian gas to European markets.

8. Russia and Ukraine’s main exports

More than one-quarter of the world’s wheat exports come from Russia and Ukraine. Economic sanctions or military action may have a significant effect on the cost of food as importers seek to find alternatives. Russia exported $407bn in products and Ukraine $49bn in 2019.

9. Which countries rely most on Russian oil?

In 2019, the world’s top exporters of crude oil were Saudi Arabia ($145bn), Russia ($123bn), Iraq ($73.8bn), Canada ($67.8bn), and the US ($61.9bn).

China bought about one-quarter (27 percent) of Russia’s total oil exports worth $34bn. However, given China’s massive energy needs, this made up only 16 percent of the country’s oil imports.

At least 48 countries imported Russian crude oil in 2019. The countries that rely most on Russian oil include: Belarus, Cuba, Curacao, Kazakhstan, Latvia – each importing more than 99 percent of their crude oil from Russia.

The graphic below shows how much of each country’s total crude oil imports come from Russia.

10. Which countries buy the most Russian weapons?

Russia is the world’s second-largest arms exporter, behind the United States, accounting for roughly 20 percent of global weapons sales. Between 2016 and 2020, Moscow sold $28bn of weapons to 45 countries.

Russia exports nearly 90 percent of its arms to 10 countries. Its biggest customer, India, bought 23 percent of Russia’s weapons for some $6.5bn over the past five years. Half of India’s total arms imports, 49.3 percent, come from Russia.

China is the second-largest buyer of Russian weaponry at $5.1bn over the same period followed by Algeria ($4.2bn), Egypt ($3.3bn), and Vietnam ($1.7bn), according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI)..

美國總統拜登憤怒,烏克蘭玩弄戰爭遊戲,浪費軍事武器,烏克蘭軍隊與NATO僱傭兵,腐敗貪污,盜賣軍火嚴重,影響到戰爭發展..

.俄羅斯總統普京大帝樂觀,有信心,贏得戰爭最後的勝利.

.

One year after its unprovoked invasion on February 24, 2022, Russia’s war against Ukraine encompasses all these dangers.

With Ukraine waging an existential battle for its very survival, and Russia seemingly happy to settle for destroying Ukraine if it fails to conquer it, neither side has any incentive to stop fighting.

Absent the complete collapse of either the Ukrainian or Russian armed forces, the grim reality is that the war will likely drag on throughout 2023 – and potentially beyond it.

2023 will be crucial

But what happens in Ukraine during 2023 will be crucial. For a start, it will reveal whether victory for either side is possible, or whether a “frozen” conflict is more likely.

It will test the resolve of all the main protagonists and their supporters:

• Ukraine’s ability to repel Russian onslaughts and recapture territory
• the extent to which Vladimir Putin can command domestic obedience
• and even of China’s intentions, as it mulls supplying Moscow with weapons.

How the war plays out in 2023 will also reveal how credible the West’s determination to stand up to bullies really is. Will it move further towards supporting Kyiv by all means necessary, revert to drip-feeding its assistance, or give in to apathy and war fatigue?..

.