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芬蘭與瑞典加入NATO.是福是禍完全由俄羅斯決定?.

NATO.版圖擴大芬蘭,瑞典有望加入.

NATO.擴大營業招兵買馬,要與俄羅斯決戰?

緊鄰俄羅斯的芬蘭和作為北歐傳統永久中立國的瑞典,同時急切謀求加入北約,意味著北約給俄羅斯致命的一擊,而兩國一旦正式「入約」,戰略要地波羅的海就將被北約成員國包圍逼迫俄羅斯要發動第3次世界大戰,俄羅斯總統新聞秘書佩斯科夫對媒體說道,北約的新一輪擴張無益於歐亞大陸的穩定和安全,芬蘭加入北約將對俄安全構成威脅,而俄方採取何種實質性應對舉措,將取決於北約軍事基礎設施向俄邊境推進的程度。

自俄烏軍事戰爭爆發以來,芬蘭和瑞典兩國或將加入北約的消息就不斷傳出,看來似乎即將塵埃落定。但此舉也將使得兩國失去中立地位,未來前景難料,對國際地緣局勢的影響也才剛剛開始。

芬蘭與俄羅斯邊境長達1300公里,但自2014年俄羅斯併吞克里米亞後,就逐步加

強與北大西洋公約組織合作,但避免加入,以維持與俄國的友善關係,直到202202月莫斯科入侵烏克蘭,讓局勢驟變。

芬蘭,瑞典入北約成定局恐掀冷戰2.0,或是第3次世界大戰.?

瑞典是世界知名的發達工業國,擁有均衡而強大的科研和高科技生產能力和完善的軍工業,芬蘭不僅同樣是工業化發達國家,且是這類國家中為數不多堅持實行義務兵役制的,擁有相對強大的軍事力量。

瑞典在波羅的海擁有漫長海岸線,芬蘭則佔據波羅的海的內海灣—芬蘭灣的北岸,如今一旦芬蘭加入北約,俄羅斯這扇通往波羅的海和北大西洋的門戶將被南北「鐵鉗」封死。芬蘭還擁有北冰洋巴倫支海西部海岸線,而巴倫支海不僅坐落著俄羅斯唯一不凍港摩爾曼斯克,更是當前俄羅斯軍事機器中最後「鎮宅之寶」—導彈核潛艇大本營。

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Sweden Faces the Russian Threat in the Baltic Sea.By beefing up its military presence in the exclave of Kaliningrad, flying provocative air patrols and by building next legs of the Nord Stream energy pipeline, Russia undermines the security of other countries in the Baltic region. Also, Moscow could take advantage of the pipeline’s energy infrastructure to take subversive actions in the Baltic.

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俄羅斯被芬蘭,瑞典鎖住咽喉,必然極力反抗,打通波羅的海的通路向外發展,普京大帝勢在必行先發制人,如果情勢發展愈來愈對於俄羅斯不利,這樣一來芬蘭,瑞典會被俄羅斯"特別教訓",情況猶如烏克蘭的翻版,引起北約出兵相救,因而引發第3次世界大戰?

國際戰略學者專家憂心忡忡的表示,美國向來居於幕後指導策劃,尤其是年度的北約軍事演習,看起來2022.年度的實兵實彈大演習,增加瑞典與芬蘭軍隊參加,頗有看頭,因為演習校閱場面盛大,不輸給俄羅斯的紅場大閱兵,北約及美國的軍事工業將再度獲得大訂單加速生產軍火供應演習或是戰爭需要.

How Russia is slowly encircling Europe.

After the end of the Cold War, one of NATO’s main military and political goals was to encircle Russia, a then-weakening power after the dissolution of the former communist Soviet Union in the late 1980s, and prevent it from expanding its influence outside its borders.  

About three decades later, the reverse is happening. Under Russian President Vladimir Putins leadership, Moscow is pulling strings in different directions — from Ukraine to Syria and most recently Libya, gaining the upper hand over the NATO forces and European Union, Washington’s main ally. 

“The Kremlin has been conducting a far more aggressive, anti-Western foreign policy, significantly ratcheting up provocative military maneuvers near NATO members’ borders with Russia, intimating nuclear threats, and deploying nuclear-capable missiles in the Russian exclave of Kaliningrad,” wrote Richard Sokolsky, a nonresident senior fellow in Carnegie’s Russia and Eurasia Program. 

Since late 2013, Moscow has backed Russian separatists in Ukraine, a country with a massive Russian influence ever since its capital Kyiv was the center of the first Russian state in the late 9th century. Moscow also issued threats against other European nations like Sweden and Finland, which have close proximity to its borders. 

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Russia .Baltic Fleet.俄羅斯波羅的海艦隊司令部計劃如何突圍?

如果被封鎖怎麼辦?

俄羅斯戰略地區被NATO.壓縮,甚至於被圍堵於.BALTIC SEA.內部動彈不得?

因此有朝1日爆發第3次世界大戰時候,首先被俄羅斯攻擊的國家就是芬蘭與瑞典,好讓俄羅斯的波羅的海艦隊,突圍進入大西洋與美國海軍對抗,否則無法進行下一階段的戰爭.202202.俄羅斯與烏克蘭的戰爭,影響到世界局勢的變化,尤其是歐洲的局勢錯綜複雜,令人擔憂,因為歐洲歷經2次世界大戰的摧毀,好不容易得到77年和平的日子,如今時勢變化莫測,第3次世界大戰彷彿正在蘊釀形成,戰鬥民族斯拉夫人民並不是好戰的民族,但是生存權與發展權受到傷害影響甚巨,這樣一來唯有訴諸戰爭.

A new nothern war?

What stands as Moscow’s top goal in the Baltic Sea is to safeguard its current influence across the region. In its worst-case scenario, the Kremlin sees non-aligned Finland and/or Sweden joining the NATO military bloc in a move that could radically shift the military and political picture in this European region to the detriment of Russia’s interests. High on Moscow’s list of priorities are any actions barring Sweden and Finland from being formally invited to NATO. Russia should be aware of yet another unfavorable scenario: in the event of a war breaking out between Russia and NATO countries in the Baltic region, Sweden and Finland, though formally neutral, would take the side of the Alliance, also by allowing their use of military facilities, airfields and naval ports. Russia is therefore beefing up its military presence in the Baltic Sea region to neutralize any adverse effects if such a scenario became a reality. Moscow for the past few years has centered its military activities and plans on both NATO-member states Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Poland, Germany and Denmark as well as Finland and, more importantly, Sweden, eyeing the last two as potential enemies.

.ON THE WARPATH .Putin’s chilling threat to Europe as he warns Sweden and Finland against joining NATO or face ‘military consequences’.

PUTIN has made a chilling threat to Europe as he warned that if Sweden and Finland join NATO there will be "detrimental military and political consequences."

Russia shares a border with Finland and a sea border with Sweden - and the comments followed Putins intensified invasion of Ukraine as they attempt to reach Kyiv.

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Russian Federations foreign affairs spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said yesterday: "Finland and Sweden should not base their security on damaging the security of other countries and their accession to NATO can have detrimental consequences and face some military and political consequences."

And after the broadcast, the foreign ministry added on Twitter: "We regard the Finnish governments commitment to a military non-alignment policy as an important factor in ensuring security and stability in northern Europe.

"Finlands accession to NATO would have serious military and political repercussions."

Many have now seen this as a direct threat to the Nordic countries - who are geographically closest in that region to Russia.

國際戰略觀察家研究分析認為,緊鄰俄羅斯的芬蘭和作為北歐傳統永久中立國的瑞典,同時急切謀求加入北約,意味著北約給俄羅斯致命的一擊,而兩國一旦正式「入約」,戰略要地波羅的海就將被北約成員國包圍,逼迫俄羅斯要發動第3次世界大戰,目前芬蘭與瑞典的3軍部隊,均已加入北約的軍事演習為熱身賽,國際戰略專家研判,2022年底芬蘭與瑞典就會核准加入NATO.屆時又要舉辦大規模的實兵實彈演習,強訓練如何抵抗第3次世界大戰時遭受到俄羅斯的攻擊.

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The economic impact of Finland and Sweden joining Nato (or not) is a lose-lose situation

Finland and Sweden’s upcoming decision on Nato membership does not change the fact that Russian foreign policy remains deeply volatile. Whatever the two countries decide, foreign businesses will be spooked.

The 15th of May 2022 could mark a historic turning point in European security as Finland and Sweden decide whether they will join the Nato alliance. Up until the 11th hour, fierce arguments have, and are, being made in support of both countries joining or remaining on the sidelines, so what will ultimately happen is anyone’s guess. Whatever the choice, an enormous geopolitical gamble is being taken. 

Decades of neutrality to be reversed? 

Finland and Sweden have maintained their Nato-neutrality for some 75 years, all throughout the Cold War and beyond. Before Russia’s war on Ukraine, public opinion in both countries remained strongly in favour of non-alignment. 

In fact, so established and sacred was this pillar of foreign policy that the term ‘Finlandisation’ arose, many decades ago, as a description of when a country is induced to favour, or refrain from opposing, the interests of a more powerful country, despite not being politically allied to it.

Vladimir Putin’s war on Ukraine, however, has called everything into question. An opinion poll in early May put support in Finland for joining Nato at 76%, with 12% against, a big shift towards membership since before the invasion.

Finnish and Swedish politicians have been less gung-ho. While in early May it looked as if both countries’ leaders were leaning towards neutrality, Finland’s president called, on 12 May, for the country to apply for Nato membership “without delay”. Russia has said it will be forced to take “retaliatory steps” if Finland goes forward with this.