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傳聞中國藉由"銀彈攻勢"奪得東沙島?

和平解放東沙島.

 

 

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日本學者分析認為2021年,如果中國控制了東沙島，可以充當監視美國和其他國家飛機、船隻進出南海的守門人，甚至進一步將東沙島軍事化，以達到整個南海內部化的目的，而且島上沒有常駐居民，國際社會的反應也不會像侵犯台灣這麼強烈，也可以根據美國新任總統拜登的反應，決定是否升級後續動作，所以東沙島現在會是一個潛在的引爆點，值得美國、日本和其他南海週邊國家留意,尤其是台灣,因為202010傳出東沙群島駐軍,因故缺少補給品,食物,醫療用品,日用品及瓶裝淡水,武器彈藥等等事項。

 

 

 

 

 

The Pratas Islands: A New Flashpoint in the South China Sea .

These unremarkable features could be the center of the next Taiwan Strait Crisis.

As China’s military intimidation of Taiwan intensifies, experts are increasingly warning of a possible Chinese attack and the potential danger in the Taiwan Strait. Considering the language Chinese media use regarding measures to “punish Taiwan,” there is now an urgent need to consider China’s possible engagement in some sort of military action against Taiwan.

At present, it is improbable that the PLA would attempt to actually land troops and occupy the island of Taiwan, because the probability of a successful military operation with minimum casualties for China is low. However, China has other options, one of which would be to apply pressure on or capture the Pratas Islands.

The Pratas Islands are located in the northern part of the South China Sea  under the jurisdiction of the Republic of China (Taiwan), closer to China’s mainland coast than to the island of Taiwan. Historically, the Pratas Islands have attracted little attention, but as the importance of the South China Sea has increased, so too has the strategic relevance of the Pratas Islands. If China controlled the Pratas Islands, the islands could function as a gatekeeper to monitor U.S. and other countries’ ships and aircraft entering the South China Sea from the Pacific Ocean.

Pratas Island (the other “islands” in the group are essentially rocks) has an airport, but no permanent inhabitants, only a number of civil officials of the Taiwanese Coast Guard and researchers. It is believed that around 500 soldiers of the ROC Marine Corps are also now stationed there. However, because the island is so small and flat, it is almost impossible to defend.

Since2020  August, there have been reports of the PLA repeatedly conducting military exercises in the area, its aircraft flying over the sea almost daily in an apparent attempt to cut off the supply line between the Pratas Islands and the island of Taiwan.

 

n October, a Taiwanese airplane flying from Kaohsiung carrying supplies to the Pratas Islands was warned by Hong Kong air traffic control not to enter Hong Kong managed airspace and returned to Taiwan. These incidents demonstrate that China could take control of the Pratas Islands whenever Chinese President Xi Jinping decides.

That would offer numerous benefits to China: (1) It would demonstrate China’s will and capabilities to Taiwan and other neighboring countries. (2) China could militarize the island as a step toward internalizing the entire South China Sea. (3) It would disrupt the early days of the Biden administration by retaking the initiative from the United States after four years of endurance under President Donald Trump. (4) Xi has been in office for eight years now, but the unification of Taiwan is no closer. The capture of the Pratas Islands might serve to cover this “inconvenient truth” and could be used to play up the propaganda war that “unification is approaching” both at home and abroad.

As for taking control of the Pratas Islands, China has plenty of options. It could conduct a surprise landing operation, forcing the Taiwanese garrison to surrender. It could blockade the islands by air and sea to exhaust Taiwanese soldiers. Alternatively, it could simply make a preliminary declaration of an attack or blockade, in a bid to force the Taiwanese garrison to retreat. For a longer term approach, it could use acts of tacit interference against Taiwanese ships and aircraft to paralyze the supply line. Or it could normalize military exercises around the islands to create psychological pressure on the Taiwanese people.

For Xi, who will preside over the centennial anniversary of the CCP in 2021 and the Twentieth Party Congress in 2022, and who envisages an extension of his term of office, it might be desirable and even necessary to show some “progress” toward the unification of Taiwan.

Recent opinion surveys show rising anti-China sentiment in the United States, Japan and other democratic countries. Any attack on Taiwan now would surely prompt an outcry in these countries. Xi is surely aware of the damage to China’s reputation that military action would cause.

But the Pratas Islands, might be different given that few people outside the immediate region have heard of them. The Chinese leadership may calculate that the international reaction to the capture of the Pratas Islands would not be as intense as that which would inevitably follow an attack on Taiwan itself. Moreover, China could experiment with the various options noted above.

For instance, while monitoring the response in Washington, China could start with the stepped-up military exercises, before moving to supply line disruptions. If that met with only a muted reaction from the Biden Administration, China could escalate. If the U.S. response was more robust, China could avoid further escalation and continue to exert pressure on Taiwan with supply line interference. If this were to create a panic and feeling of resignation in Taiwan, it would be a windfall for Xi.

In capturing the Pratas Islands, China could kill several birds with one stone. For instance, success could serve to consolidate Xi’s grip on the CCP. As such, the islands are a potential flashpoint that now need to come to the attention of the U.S., Japan and other democratic countries.

 

 

北約某大國際戰略研究所分析認為,2021年,中國將以"武力"

及銀彈攻勢,攻打東沙群島及太平島.

1:中國已經放棄以巡防駐守的中國南海策略,改為主動進攻的防禦策略.

 

2:美國經過20餘年的中國南海自由巡航,已經無法控制中國在南海的諸多開發建設.

 

3:中國業已完成,實施中國南海防空識別區的各項準備,只欠"東風",意指收復東沙群島及太平島(南沙群島).

 

4:中國海軍山東號航空母艦戰鬥群CV -17./CBG.已經訓練完成將永遠駐紮南海艦隊,此外海南省業已完成航空母艦後勤補級,維修碼頭區,專門服務山東號航空母艦戰鬥群.

 

5:美國海軍情報分析,CV -17./CBG,將配置2艘055D.導向飛彈驅逐艦,4艘052D.導向飛彈驅逐艦,4艘054A.導向飛彈護衛艦,1艘075倆棲攻擊艦LHD.1艘補給艦,1艘醫療船等等,此外令美國海軍憂心忡忡的是CV-17.CBG.將擁有最新的095SSN.核子攻擊潛以及096 SSBN.核子戰略潛艦各1艘,形成亞太地區最強勢的海軍作戰部隊,尤其是096SSBN.可以發射潛射型JL-3.型洲際飛彈(核彈頭)進行有效的抵抗美國.

 

6:北約某位退休將領透露出,202010東沙島事件,完全由中國主導,意在說明中國可以不發1槍1彈和平解放接收東沙島,其細節作業更進一步說明,將台灣東沙島守軍招降,轉送中國再遣送返回台灣省,傳聞中國將給予每位台灣阿兵哥300萬人民幣,折合新台幣1500萬,以郵政匯款直接入帳戶?

如果此項計劃模式得以成功實現,這樣一來太平島被解放接收就指日可待.

目前台灣駐守東沙島的海巡署僅有2個中隊48人左右?

台灣軍方扔然考慮再度派遣海軍陸戰隊駐守東沙島?.

 

7:美國與中國的關係目前降至冰點,期待新任總統拜登,能夠恢復過來良好的雙邊關係,而且更進一步處促進全球關係正常化,因為川建國同志剛愎自用,的確的搞亂中國與美國的關係,也搞亂與歐盟,俄羅斯,日本,印度等國的關係,期待2021年美國與諸大國的關係正常化.(中,美,英,法,蘇) .

 

8:美國是否會自阿富汗及敘利亞完全撤軍? 要依照國際局勢的發展,雖然美國自德國撤走12500人的軍隊,但是轉進駐到波蘭及波羅的海3小國,就是玩弄換湯不換藥的戰爭遊戲.

9:川建國同志,三番兩次放話,要攻打伊朗,只有可能是嘴砲,發洩個人競選總統連任失敗的情緒,需要找藉口下檯,以便給予選民有所交待?

 

10:COVID-19.疫病扔然在美國及美軍中蔓延,疫苗的針劑雖然問市,但是需要時間證明出藥劑是否絕對有效的控制疫病.

 

美國海軍分析指出China navy CV-17/CBG.極為可能成為亞洲最強的航空母艦戰鬥群.

 

 

美國海軍分析認為China 055D 導向飛彈驅逐艦 將是CV-17/CBG.航空母艦戰鬥群中最兇猛的戰艦.因為該艦配置各式各樣的導向飛彈,在300公里範圍內,可以摧毀敵人的海軍任何一艘水面戰艦.

 

 

CHINA 094.SSBN.

傳聞CHINA NAVY 095SSN.於2019年的軍事演習擊退美國核子潛艦.SSBN734以及SSN762.

 

CHINA NAVY 096SSBN.即將於2021年服役.096.可以攜帶JL-3.潛射型洲際飛彈(核彈頭),進行第二次核打擊任務抵抗美國的侵略.