日本最受亞太民眾歡迎？ - 之乎者也

Contents ...

日本最受亞太民眾歡迎？

2015/09/10 14:21

迴響6

推薦60

引用0

本月初，美國的皮尤研究中心﹝Pew Research Center﹞發表了一份調查報告，標題是「亞太民眾如何看對方及其國家領導人」﹝How Asia-Pacific Publics See Each Other and Their National Leaders﹞，副標題寫著「日本被視為最受歡迎，沒有領袖得到多數支持」﹝Japan Viewed Most Favorably, No Leader Enjoys Majority Support﹞。﹝1﹞

該調查報告顯示，日本得到日本以外亞太民眾好感的中位數是71%，歡迎度高於中國大陸、印度、和南韓。但是這結論不但和一般人的認知有落差，更有誤導讀者之嫌。於是我分析了該報告的資料：

	日本	中國	印度	南韓
馬來西亞	84%	78	45	61
越南	82	19	66	82
菲律賓	81	54	48	68
澳大利亞	80	57	58	61
印尼	71	63	51	42
巴基斯坦	48	82	16	15
印度	46	41	---	28
南韓	25	61	64	---
中國	12	---	24	47
日本	---	9	63	21
中位數	71	57	51	47
排序	1	2	3	4

資料來源：Pew Research Center﹝2﹞

果然，我發現該報告的結論有明顯的問題，簡單的說，只有12%的中國大陸民眾對日本有好感，而中國大陸的人口佔了日本以外的九個國家中人口的四成，再怎麼算日本也不會得到71%亞太民眾的好感！

皮尤研究中心的報告犯了一個基本的錯誤，那就是沒有考慮到人口權值，把中國大陸和人口與台灣相當的澳大利亞放在一起各投一票有道理嗎？這又不是聯合國大會的投票，當然有問題。

就像算學期平均成績要考慮學分加權一樣，不能直接把各科成績加起來除以學科數。我試著將人口權值考慮進去，得到以下表格的內容：

	人口百萬	日本	日本加權	中國	中國加權	印度	印度加權	南韓	南韓加權
馬來西亞	30	84%	2520	78	2340	45	1350	61	1830
越南	90	82	7380	19	1710	66	5940	82	7380
菲律賓	98	81	7938	54	5292	48	4704	68	6664
澳大利亞	23	80	1840	57	1311	58	1334	61	1403
印尼	250	71	17750	63	15750	51	12750	42	10500
巴基斯坦	182	48	8736	82	14924	16	2912	15	2730
印度	1252	46	57592	41	51332	---	---	28	35056
南韓	50	25	1250	61	3050	64	3200	---	---
中國	1357	12	16284	---	---	24	32568	47	63779
日本	127	---	---	9	1143	63	8001	21	2667
加權總計			121290		96852		72759		132009
計算人口			3332		2102		2207		3409
加權平均			36		46		33		39
排序			3		1		4		2

將人口權值考慮進去以後，日本只得到36%亞太民眾的好感，低於中國大陸的46%和南韓的39%！這樣的結果和皮尤研究中心的結論恰好相反，卻符合一般亞太民眾的認知。

我未能在皮尤研究中心的網站找到他們的回饋信箱，如果您剛好知道請告知，我將與他們聯絡。

參考資料：

1. http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/09/02/how-asia-pacific-publics-see-each-other-and-their-national-leaders/

2. http://www.pewglobal.org/2015/09/02/how-asia-pacific-publics-see-each-other-and-their-national-leaders/asia-heat-map/

回覆引用

有誰引用
我要引用
引用網址

列印

有誰推薦more

全站分類：時事評論｜媒體出版

自訂分類：不符事實者

上一則：有趣的新聞報導
下一則：營運虧損不是這樣算的

限會員,要發表迴響,請先登入

迴響（6）：

6樓. 日本國皇帝德仁文仁王仁侃陛下 2015/09/30 10:23 日本國是一個遵守國際秩序的國家! 你指的是偷襲珍珠港嗎？ SJW 於 2015/10/01 12:02回覆
5樓. nothing special 2015/09/11 19:42 You're welcome. Basically, I doubt PEW will admit their mistake; however, how the data and conclusion of a survey can be manupulated is well known, professionally and politically. At least, they should hear a different voice, we should thank you for the effort. How the survey can be manupulated? The Languages is one biggest questionable key. What language PEW used for their questions to each indivisual countries? English? How many Chinese, Japanese or Korean really understand the English questions? If English is the language of the questionair, the sample size turns out another problem. If indivisual languages of each countries used, then, the of answers of the questionair are doubtable, for lost in translation never be a joke. I haven’t received any response from Pew Research yet. They may not acknowledge any mistake they made but they should at least provide an explanation. I will keep you informed. SJW 於 2015/09/15 12:48回覆
4樓. nothing special 2015/09/11 10:14 Try the feed back site: http://www.pewresearch.org/contact-form/ Thank you for letting me know the feedback site. I just sent my feedback which is attached below. Below please find my comments regarding your September 2, 2015 article “How Asia-Pacific Publics See Each Other and Their National Leaders.” I respect your professional expertise in sample collection. However, the conclusion (i.e., Japan is viewed most favorable in other Asia-Pacific public) derived from the data you collected may opposite to the views of Asia-Pacific general public. Your data shows that Japan is viewed favorable by 46% India people and 12% Chinese people. The population of these two countries accounts for about 80% of the population among the 9 listed countries (other than Japan). Without any further complicate calculation, one would not believe that Japan should be viewed as favorable by more than half of the total population of the Asia-Pacific public. In other words, the median of 71% is meaningless and is somewhat misleading. In fact, if the population of each country is used as a weight, the weighted average of Japan’s favorable view by other Asia-Pacific public will be only 36%, which is actually 10% less than that of China using the same method. SJW 於 2015/09/11 12:11回覆
3樓. 驅逐低端人口,這樣對嗎？ 2015/09/11 02:01 版主的算法，確實比較合理。 謝謝版主的細心。 謝謝您的肯定。 SJW 於 2015/09/11 12:12回覆
2樓. 多硯坊 (休) 2015/09/10 17:43 程度太差且別有意圖 與台南副市長的登革熱死亡率 簡直是異曲同工 對一個以調查報告為主要產出的研究機構來說，這樣的結論方式真的很誇張。 SJW 於 2015/09/11 12:14回覆
1樓. 光復 2015/09/10 16:56 美國,唬弄 或許存心誤導讀者。 SJW 於 2015/09/11 12:15回覆