看似 明牌 ? ! - 演好〝老賊〞，假戲真作，見好就收，請勿太認真 ? - udn部落格
演好〝老賊〞，假戲真作，見好就收，請勿太認真 ?
作家：摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目
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    看似 明牌 ? !
    2018/03/07 12:39:46
    瀏覽：1586
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    推薦：10
    引用0
    楔子:   『Relative to physical gold, gold stocks are severely undervalued, ....』 http://www.kitco.com/news/video/show/PDAC-2018/1881/2018-03-05/Gold-Equities-Are-Insanely-Priced---Amir-Adnani#_48_INSTANCE_puYLh9Vd66QY_=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.kitco.com%2Fnews%2Fvideo%2Flatest%3Fshow%3DPDAC-2018

    過去 五年來的 金價 在 兩年前探底。 底部 前後 呈 V 形。 再前 為 箱形 震蕩 ($1,200 - $1,400)。 ← 若 時光場景 V 型 前後 對稱﹐在 $1,400 Break out 之前 ← 或有兩波 下探 $1,200 箱形 震蕩 ? !

    5 year gold

    過去 五年來的 金礦股價 GDX



    過去 五年來的 金礦 開採 成本價 AiSC = All in Sustaining Cost
    AiSC

    查 通膨 為 共識﹐比較 前三圖﹐自 2017 年初 以來﹐金價上揚﹐成本持平﹐但 金礦股價 未漲。 其能久乎 ? !   https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-04-03/blackrock-s-1-3-billion-gold-fund-feels-pain-of-bullion-miners

    明牌 → 2018 金價 vs. 金礦股價 ← 後者 明顯偏低 ← 其能久乎 ? ! BR

    A Change Is Gonna Come ~ 其能久乎 ? ! - Aretha Franklin


    三條線哦想什麼

    瞎摸象: 猜想

    1. 市場 認為 通膨 → 利率 將 高漲 → 股神 (猾潤‧包肥 Omaha, NE ?) 曰 『金子 不生 金(利息-interest)。』 → 黃金市價 將跌 ? ! 哭哭哭哭   http://classic-blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/111254567

    2. 市場 認為 世界 金礦 枯竭﹐黃金開採 成本 或將 速增。 『If you look at the production profile especially for majors, it’s topping out …going out four, five, six years, it starts to drop significantly. 』 - Joe Foster, portfolio manager for VanEck’s International Investors Gold Fund

    但 物以稀為貴 ? !   http://classic-blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/5938215

    懇請不吝賜教？

    I Fought The Law (1966)   ~ 『死生有命﹐富貴在天 ?』

    回應

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    迴響（7） ：
    7樓. 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目
    2018/05/10 17:48
    有人 短綫 看下探 $1250 ~ $1280 ?
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4171708-gold-introduction-update-midas-touch-gold-model

    Now with the start of the typically weak seasonal cycle in spring, the model finally has turned bearish pointing to a breakdown below $1,300. Although being pretty oversold the model's conclusion on gold's immediate fate seems to be clear. We expect the final low to come in between $1,250 and $1,280 over the next one to three months and recommend being patient for now.

    Ascending triangle should take gold towards $1,500

    MT
    懇請不吝賜教？
    6樓. 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目
    2018/05/08 03:48
    短綫 似 無 熊市 ?
    自從 北韓 談和﹐金市看淡﹐短綫 似 見底 ? !

    http://www.kitco.com/news/2018-05-07/Speculators-Slash-Bullish-Gold-Position-Price-May-Be-Due-For-Bounce.html

    建議 同時 小賣 十二月 GDX 22.5 Call 及 23 Put ← 猜想 → 或然率 而言﹐嬴面 大於 虧面 ? !  

    三條線哦想什麼 
    懇請不吝賜教？
    長綫:

    1. Mining companies have trouble to find NEW gold reserve (e.g. ABX).
    2. China, Russian Central Banks increase their gold reserve because they do not trust Uncle Sam's printing deficit Dollar.
    3. Oil price has bottomed out and is moving up.
    4. Five year gold price chart clealy shows forming a perfect cup.
    5. Warren Buffett once made British Gorden a fool by dumping gold @ $300 an ounce that no other central banker is stupid enough to follow suit ever since.

    ← It does not take a rocket scientist to read the writings on the wall. 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目 於 2018/05/08 05:53回覆
    5樓. 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目
    2018/04/28 12:46
    Keno ? 開了 ？
    明牌 似 開牌了 ? 五週來 金子 掉 3.3% 金礦 掉 2%

    GDX
    懇請不吝賜教？
    4樓. 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目
    2018/04/15 06:54
    Gold Bull's view ? !
    『The major miner ETF opened this week in the $22 region, which is the same level it was trading when gold was nearly $150 lower in late November of 2016. Most traders have given up and shifted speculative capital elswhere.

    The GDX has been carving out a rounded bottom on the weekly chart. We have seen safe haven capital coming into the gold space while global geo-political tensions and monetary concerns have spooked investors.

    The action in the GDX of late shows a potential bottom materializing out of boredom and neglect. When enough money has exited the sector, there is not enough selling power left to drive down prices much further and the market creates an exhaustion bottom.

    If we indeed have a bottom in place, once the GDX closes above the $25 level, it would confirm a breakout and potentially bring a massive amount of capital into the sector. The $25 region in the global miner ETF could be synonymous with major resistance at the $1365 level being closed above and held on a weekly basis in gold. This week, the critical resistance at $1365 was tested for the third time this year and would constitute a major breakout if/when it closes above this level. Any move above $1365 would likely target at least $1450 in Gold and the $31 region in the GDX.

    The gold miner sector is so small relative to broader stock markets that even minor shifts in capital flows can drive enormous gains in a relatively short amount of time. A long-term consolidation in the tight range of $21 to $25 in the GDX has now entered its 16th month, making the miner sector a coiled spring and ready to explode higher once the market is convinced the $1365 level in gold will become the new floor, as opposed to critical resistance.』 ~ David Erfle
    懇請不吝賜教？
    『There are two opposite kindergarden games. Both plays the imbalance of demand and supply. One called musical chair ← the number of kids is one more than the number of seats. When the music stops, every kids are fighting for a seat to sit. The other game called Whirlwind 大風吹. Kids sit around a circle and passing a doll. When the music stops, the one end up holding the doll is the loser. These two game is resemble the gold miners stock markets. Lately the games are changing from the whilwind game to the music chair game. 』 The squeeze is coming ? ! 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目 於 2018/04/15 07:29回覆
    3樓. 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目
    2018/03/23 23:23
    不出所料﹐賺啦 ? !
    華爾街 不乏 看空黃金者 → 不能 天天過年 ? !   http://classic-blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/111254567

    今晨 as of 9:58 am Central time. 黃金漲 : GLD ↑ 1.5%

    金礦股 GDX ↑ 3.5% GG ↑ 5.29%

    川普 当道 ← http://classic-blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/91291520

    天意 ?! http://classic-blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/5831601

    看似 明牌 ? ! http://classic-blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/110851987

    懇請不吝賜教？
    懇請不吝賜教？
    13 日 + 星期五 Gold ETF GDX 升。 帳面 漲了 五千 美金。 當時不知何故 ? ! 今晨 看 新闻 才知 市場関後﹐美英法 对 敘利亞 空炸 → 懲罰 阿塞德 對 叛民 施用 毒氣 化武。 哭哭哭哭 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目 於 2018/04/14 19:50回覆
    明牌 一張張 開牌啦 ? !

    為了獎勵 瞎摸象 炒股眼光 甚準﹐這兩周﹐敗了 兩台 Nikon 頂級 業餘玩家 單反 → D850 + D500  (新台幣 90K + 60K)

    為何兩台 ? !

    師法 牛頓 『大貓走大洞﹐小貓走小洞。』 ← Parallel Processing 始祖 ? !

    查 event photography 常 一刻值千金 → 或 來不急 臨陣換將 ← 換長短鏡頭。

    D850 配 24-120mm﹐D500 配 18-300mm (effective 27-450mm。   橫看成嶺側成峰 遠近高低各不同 ..... 

    怒火中燒好 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目 於 2018/04/06 17:24回覆
    小確幸 ？！ ← 夕陽無限好     http://classic-blog.udn.com/mbr8879576/13408861

    哭哭
     摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目 於 2018/04/06 19:33回覆
    2樓. 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目
    2018/03/17 09:58
    Insider buying ? !

    『... the gold stocks continue to languish in boredom and obscurity, the smart money will continue buying the quality miners which are being sold at discount levels due to lack of patience and growing disgust. Earlier this week, John L. Thornton, Executive Chairman of the largest gold mining company in the world, Barrick Gold Corp. (ABX), purchased over $3.5 million of ABX in the open market. Barrick’s share price has been cut in half since mid-2016 and is trying to bottom around the price Mr. Thornton just paid. When a sector bellwether like ABX makes a solid bottom, the confirmation of a GDX long-term bottom may not be too far behind. In fact, back in 2015, it was one of the first miners to bottom well ahead of the sector.』

    http://www.kitco.com/commentaries/2018-03-16/Never-Sell-a-Dull-Market-All-Eyes-on-the-FOMC-Next-Week.html

    懇請不吝賜教？
    A full list of each insider buy can be found at CanadianInsider.com. Here are a few of the main purchases.

    - On March 12, Kevin Dushnisky, director and president, bought 4,310 shares at $15.47 per share. Dushnisky also bought 2,865 shares at $15.83 on March 13, 980 shares at $15.82 on March 13, and 3,845 shares at $15.92 on March 14. He currently owns 126,479 shares, according to filings.
    - On March 12, Graham Clow, director, bought 4,000 shares at $15.49 per share, worth $61,960.
    - On March 12, Robert Krcmarov, executive VP of exploration and growth, bought 2,000 shares at $15.46.
    - On March 12, John Prichard, director, bought 10,000 shares at $15.41 per share, worth $154,100.
    - On March 8, John Lawson Thornton, executive chairman of the board, bought 306,000 shares at $11.72, worth $4.63 million, and he now owns over 1.7 million shares of Barrick.
    - On March 1, Pablo Marcet, director bought 1,000 shares of Barrick at $15.04, and on Feb. 23, he bought 4,000 shares at $15.68.

    $$$.$$ must be in Canadian $ 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目 於 2018/03/28 07:58回覆
    Most purchase price must be in Canadian $.  Some may be in US $ 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目 於 2018/03/28 08:08回覆
    1樓. 現在正是深秋
    2018/03/12 05:21
    湊熱鬧一下
    天天天藍
    3Qs

    姚煒(金大班最後一夜): 『張国榮 被 鬼纏上。 耳邊有個声音 要他跳樓。

    听久了﹐受不了﹐..... 』

    哭哭哭哭 摸 象 或 (不?) 著 木目 於 2018/03/12 07:41回覆