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美國(CSIS)日發表《擴大全球對台灣的支持》報告Building International Support for Taiwan ?
2024/02/15 12:06


美國華府智庫戰略暨國際研究中心(CSIS)「費和中國研究講座」(Freeman Chair in China Studies).20240213報告主要重點包括:


學者指出,歐洲各國領袖應駁斥中國宣稱美國破壞亞太地區穩定的說法,可以採納愛沙尼亞總理將俄羅斯對烏克蘭的戰爭視為殖民戰爭的觀點,強調必須遏制中國的擴張主義。此外歐洲各國也須建立強有力的法律基礎來支持台海現狀,問題在於美國及西方國家為什麼熱衷於"台灣議題" ?



Building International Support for Taiwan ?

The Issue:Deterring Beijing’s growing threats to peace and stability in the Taiwan Strait will require a strong international coalition of partners to support Taiwan and send credible warning signals to China. To deepen international cooperation on capacity building and deterrence, Washington will need a compelling narrative for why Taiwan matters that instills urgency across a wide range of capitals—and avoids limiting engagement through overly militaristic framings of the challenge. This will require developing a finer grained understanding of how Taiwan and cross-Strait issues fit within other countries’ national interests and what types of strategic narratives on Taiwan resonate in various capitals. Toward this end, the CSIS Freeman Chair convened a geographically diverse international task force of experts for four sessions across May to November 2023. This paper is not a consensus document but distills key insights co-conveners drew from this set of discussions.

The key findings of this task force include:

  • Specific interests, rather than democratic solidarity, are more likely to drive engagement with Taiwan in most parts of the world and will likely need to serve as the foundation for expanding stakeholder buy-in.
  • Washington should expand its efforts to highlight how threats to Taiwan’s peace and prosperity directly impact wide swaths of the global community. The more Taiwan comes to be viewed as critical to regional stability and, by extension, global prosperity, the more invested other stakeholders will be in its security.
  • Relatedly, arguments about stability, rather than debates over Taiwan’s sovereignty per se, are likelier to galvanize global attention to its security and well-being. Washington should make the case that Beijing’s efforts to isolate Taiwan will directly lead to instability in the region and the broader global economy.
  • Greater clarity on the ultimate and proximate causes of rising tensions in the Taiwan Strait is needed to combat Beijing’s narrative that the United States is solely responsible for “stirring the pot.” Task force participants recommended coordinated efforts to track and publicize the main elements of China’s pressure campaign against Taiwan in the military, economic, and cyber domains, ideally spearheaded by an organization outside of the United States in order to maximize credibility.
  • The United States and key coalition partners must address the lack of basic understanding about Taiwan’s history, the key legal and geopolitical elements of cross-Strait relations, and the debate over sovereignty among publics and political elites in many countries. As long as there is a deficit of knowledge regarding Taiwan in global discourse, Beijing will have ample space to actively shape and manipulate public narratives.
  • Uncertainty over the direction of U.S. foreign policy amid an upcoming presidential election increases hesitancy among current and prospective partners to support Taiwan. In the long term, U.S. consistency and steadiness regarding Taiwan will be an important foundation for generating greater global buy-in. Conversely, prevarication, inconsistency, and the abandonment of the long-standing “One China” policy will cast a chill on allied coordination on Taiwan.
  • Relatedly, overly militaristic framings about cross-Strait issues and Taiwan’s future have the unanticipated consequence of constraining the space for actual and potential coalition partners to engage on the issue.

Finally, it is important to note that this paper reflects key takeaways that the authors have drawn from the task force discussions. This is not a consensus document of the international task force.



• 華府應向各國突顯台灣和平繁榮若受威脅,將直接影響全球社會。台灣越被視為區域穩定及全球繁榮的關鍵,各方對台灣安全的投入就越多。

• 以穩定為訴求,比起台灣主權的訴求更能激發全球關注台灣的安全與福祉。華府應說明北京若孤立台灣將直接導致區域和全球經濟的不穩定。

• 須加強釐清台海緊張局勢加劇的遠因和近因,以駁斥北京大外宣聲稱美國才應負全責的說法。專家小組建議各國協同追蹤及公開中國在軍事、經濟和網路領域對台施壓的主要內容,最好由美國以外的組織帶頭以提升可信度。

• 全球對台灣歷史、台灣主權及兩岸關係的主要法律與地緣政治要素缺乏基本了解,美國和主要盟國必須解決這個問題。只要全球對台灣的認知存在缺陷,北京就有足夠空間積極操弄公共論述。

• 美國總統大選11月將登場,而美國外交政策方向的不確定性將使合作夥伴對於支持台灣較為猶豫。長遠而言,美國在台灣問題上維持一致和穩定將是獲得全球更多支持的重要基礎。若放棄長期以來的「一個中國政策」(不同於中國主張的「一個中國原則」),將影響盟國在台灣問題上的一致性。.........................

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1樓. sigmachen
2024/02/15 18:06