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我信夢熊 CY the Liar
2013/01/30 00:57
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近幾天熊咬狼骨這鬧劇沸沸揚揚。余相信熊對狼的指控百分百真確,理由如下 :
「第日俾個官你做」是任何同類選舉中參選者對助選團核心成員的標準承諾,歷屆美國總統選舉莫不如此,英國、日本政黨競逐黨魁亦無例外。若這個在西方所謂民主選舉制裏已視為天經地義的政治交易模式,可成為廉署調查的個案, 則香港的選舉法出了天大的問題。若當選者大封功臣在香港成為賄選罪證的話,肯定笑掉西方人的大牙。余一貫相信間選遠比直選優勝。直選比拼的是候選人的推銷、包裝、外表,英語曰 Presentability。最經典的例子乃1960年高富帥的肯尼迪拜當年首創的電視辯論所賜(聽收音機者判肯尼迪辯輸)最後擊敗除了外形其它都較他優勝的尼克松。(尼克松當時已曾任眾、參議員及在位8年的副總統。肯尼迪則只曾任眾、參議員, 從沒一官半職, 他是美國史上第2个由參議員進身的總統。08年是美國首次由兩個參議員競逐總統, 奧巴馬是肯尼迪48年後史上第3个)。最接近我們的例子就是虛有其表的馬英九。手握選票的大多數愚民對候選人的能力如不是一無所知就是只能看到其包裝出來的表面。間選最好的例子是由國會議員選出總理/首相。二十世紀中後葉組成的西方七雄(G-7)中只有美、法兩國用總統(直選)制,其餘日、德、英、意、加、五國均採用間選。再舉一個例子:一班中四學生選班長,已同學三年,對各自的能力、品德,有相當了解。一間大學全體學生直選學生會會長,一萬多人,且有新入學者,投票是否只能憑參選團隊的推銷包裝?如果中學再由各班長互選學生會會長,相互間也曾共事,是較理性的選擇。日本由06年至今,小泉、安倍、福田、麻生、鳩山、菅、野田、安倍,7年7人8任首相。其中只是09年乃大選造成政黨輪替,其餘皆由執政黨內有野心者覷準政治形勢把首相(黨魁)揪下台。在每一輪逼宮中,欲登大位者每每不只一人,06年時安倍、福田、麻生,皆爭奪繼承小泉。博弈關鍵之一就是拉幫結派,這當然包括了對支持者的許諾。奧巴馬08年競選團隊核心成員也絕大多數日後成為白宮官員。何賄選之有?很可惜,香港人的政治民智只在幼稚園水平,所以不單只這邊廂飯壳威以為執到寶,那邊廂狼與其已獲封的功臣也忙不迭地矢口否認。
「與泛民是敵我矛盾」亦絕無疑問是八字真言。你可會覺得泛民視政府為其夥伴、盟友?根據布殊二世當年強拉他國陪其侵佔伊拉克時之邏輯,非友即敵也。自回歸以來,泛民無時無刻、有理沒理,與歷屆政府為敵,是沒人可以否定的。朝野間存在矛盾,就像日出東方、水向下流,是必然的、是政治的孿胎,且穿越古今時空、橫跨東西文化。我國歷史上屢見不鮮。唐宋八大家中也大多參與政治鬥爭,且以失敗者居多(然子厚斥不久,穷不极,虽有出于人,其文学辞章,必不能自力,以致必传于后如今,无疑也。虽使子厚得所愿,为将相于一时,以彼易此,孰得孰失,必有能辨之者)奧巴馬最近的就職演辭也說到美國共和與民主兩黨之爭已把你死我活置於人民福祉之上,不久之前CBS 60 minutes 也說過同一命題。「親疏有別」與「敵我矛盾」指的是同一事情,只是用詞的力度與技巧上的差別。另一差別則是貪曾夠 guts 說,而狼則一如以往什麼都說了不認賬。懵熊、盲熊只能怪自己沒擇木而棲。

postscript : some of my classmates emailed me their views after reading the above, I post these responses below. 

Dear William
Nice reading your short article on dream bear versus the wolf. Below is my wild guess of what is happening: 
  
1.       There is no real democracy in the world. It is only two party to choose from, the replubican versus the democrat, the right and left or the old rich against the less rich using people power  to replace the establishment. 
2.       The party elected their own presidential candidate, when elected, they appointed their own cabinet, subject to congress approval. 
3.       In hk, cy has to get the support of the second tier tycoon, second tier local communist member, the leftist in china, communist youth league, Wen and Hu, together with tung with western help to use apple daily, oriental newspaper, etc for an arab spring, people power strategy to get elected. 
4.       Consequently, cy has to replace the old establishment, in business, government etc with its own supporter. Pay back time. 
5.       In china, in 2012, the old establishment, using politic, foreign territories dispute, motivate it military base to consolidate military power to legitimize and control its power for domestic purpose. 
6.       The arab spring fail, and the princeling and military seize power doing its house cleaning with anti corruption tactic which cause the mass exodus recently. 
7.       So, what will happen to cy and hk? 
8.       Dream bear voice his attack through Isun weekly magazine, a military propaganda mouthpiece, it is in the process of replacing the revolutionist. 
9.       To hk, it is just the so call republican winning back their seat and control for the near future, it make no difference to us ordinary citizen. 
10.   In five years, hk might become the biggest financial centre, replacing wall street, usa is back in asia for business, market and trade, usa , Europe and japan all printing money and devalue the currency to sell and do business in asia. 
11.   Hk is our home, we just withness a so call election process, hk style. It was fun. 
    
gulliver

Dr Woo : all are human nature and history rotating around a time axis and locations, disguised under different costumes and roles. We as spectators just sit back and enjoy the show, add some color and carry on the boring life as usual till the end.

Victor : 我喜欢你的中四班长跟大学学生会长的比喻

Paul : 鳳閣恩仇未了情

Dr Choy : william is correct on both counts concerning the recent saga between lew mon hung and cy leung. I just want to add something to his discourse on Kennedy/ nixon election back in the sixties. Not only did jfk win by a narrow margin. in fact papa joe k rig the polls in illinois by bribiing the mob , organised labour and teamster to acquire the necessary votes  Later when jfk went against the mafia through his bro robert K, the newly appointed attorney general, the wise guys were seriously pissed and took part in the plot in assasinating JFK.  
A juicy tid-bit -- Marylin Monroe slept with both JFK and Sam 'momo' Giacana the chicago mob boss. As the old adage goes. vagina and politics are two of the dirtiest things on earth but men just cannot get enough of them.

Dear William,
Good to see your viewpoint in the blog.  Democracy is long gone and replaced by "BS artists". Unfortunately HKG doesn't even have the artists with this gifted talent. That's my view!! 
Bernard
Gulliver : White or black cat, left ,right, democracy or socialism, the govt that bring peace, stability , prosperity, humanity, integrity and dignity to their people n human being is good leadership n government.
Dr sun yat sun try to bring democracy, but fail n the country n it's people suffer, it is the end result that count

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1樓. doo
2013/04/19 22:34
Political Commentator
You deserve to have your own column in the daily newspapers.
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