一切都是命！

去年7月與10月的高點，筆者都有預測到，也都躲過了。去年底12月的7384點又再進場搶反彈，3月的選舉與5月的就職，也發出警告要出場，結果也對了，問題是實際操作卻迷失於『馬上好』，金融占星能夠預知未來，但是不確定性仍然高的嚇人，以這次台股520之後的崩跌走勢而言，由於來的又急又猛，而且大多數投資人都沒有戒心，所以無論是老手與散戶都不免有相當的損失。

現在回頭檢討，很顯然去年的7月或10月是多頭第五波結束，接下來是走ABC空頭修正。空頭時間波的結束點也早有預測：「７月２日∼８月１９日火星與土星合相於處女座　大兇！」，請看連結：http://blog.udn.com/kurich/1635924

結果自己的預測自己卻忘了，所以說，冥冥中自有定數，算八字明明知道自己上半年會破財，就這樣破了，躲也躲不掉！

最近有網友問7月2日∼8月19日到底哪一天才是最低點？答案是我也不知道，看個股吧，有可能是火土合相的7月10日就是指數最低點。這波跌下來，親朋好友都有受傷，只有老媽笑呵呵，老媽根本就不懂任何股票經，筆者去年推薦她唯一的一支股票：55元買進中華電，她只知道要聽兒子的話，至今還是賺錢的！所以玩股票能不能賺錢，有時候往往與技術脫節的，還是要看命，一切都是命，沈富雄當不上監察院副院長也是命中注定，怨不得別人。

Comments For The Week Beginning July 14, 2008

Written by Raymond Merriman

Review and Preview

One by one, they keep falling to new lows. This is the pattern of stock indices when the downside dominancy phase of longer-term cycles starts to kick in. This is the pattern when the influence of the longer-term planetary cycles starts to kick in. The shorter-term market cycles, and the shorter-term geocosmic cycles are all dwarfed – stunted, thwarted – when the big guns appear on the horizon and begin their march across earth. 

Last week we noted that there was still some hope for the bulls based on the possibility of intermarket bullish divergence in the stock indices of each of the regions of the world. That possibility is becoming less evident as more and more indices continue to fall to new yearly lows. Not only that, but these indices are not sustaining any reversal rallies as we now come to the end of this large time band of heavily populated geocosmic signatures, June 12-July 14. Normally such a time band would produce a healthy rally somewhere near its middle (i.e. June 28). Although there have been some sharp rally days, they have been followed by even more dramatic declines almost immediately after, such as last Tuesday’s 152 point up day followed by Wednesday’s 236-point down day in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Last Wednesday (July 9) was the very important Sun-Jupiter opposition day. As stated the past two weeks, “The Sun-Jupiter opposition is particularly interesting because it has a 75% correlation to primary or greater cycles within 10 trading days. Like Uranus turning retrograde, this is one of the strongest signatures correlating with reversals in stock indices. It can correlate with powerful price moves, like 200+ point up or down days within only 4 trading days in the DJIA.” Bingo! But it didn’t produce a reversal that lasted, and that tells us that something bigger is in force. And that is the approaching 45-year cycle of the opposition of Saturn and Uranus. 

Right now, of all the equity markets around the world we track, only the Japanese Nikkei, Hang Seng of Hong Kong, and the NASDAQ Composite of the U.S.A. still remain above their lows of January-March. All the other indices have broken down in the past two weeks. And while stocks have plunged, Crude Oil and precious metals and foreign currencies against the U.S. Dollar have soared (see Longer-Term thoughts below). Once again, this behavior supports the idea that the forthcoming Saturn-Uranus opposition is so dominant that it dwarfs the positive effect of lesser geocosmic cycles, such as the Jupiter-Saturn trine and Jupiter-Uranus sextile – even though the later have already been in effect since January and will continue until November, whereas the Saturn-Uranus opposition doesn’t officially begin until November. The Saturn-Uranus opposition is still in its “applying aspect” phase, whereas the others are actually underway. But even as an applying aspect, it is much more powerful than the 14 and 20-year cycles of the lesser and usually favorable Jupiter aspects to Saturn and Uranus combined. We do note that the rally high in the DJIA ended May 19 as the Jupiter-Uranus sextile unfolded. It has been downhill ever since. 

Short-Term Geocosmics

We are now at the very end of this huge time band of geocosmic signatures extending from June 12 through July 14. The midpoint of June 28 did not correlate with a lasting major reversal in stock indices. There is still a possibility it could coincide with a reversal at the very end, for there are three Level One (strongest correlates to reversals) signatures in effect July 9-14. July 11 is right in the middle, and as noted above, most equity markets fell into Friday of last week, July 11, while Crude Oil and precious metals and currencies (vis-à-vis the US Dollar) soared. 

But there is another geocosmic pattern that has now begun and is of concern. As written in this week’s report for our Japanese stock market subscribers, “That is the transit of Mars, which is now in a “translation” position between the conjunction to Saturn (July 10) and opposition to Uranus (August 6). Why is this important? Because the Saturn-Uranus opposition is the greatest long-term geocosmic signature in effect that is coming up shortly (November 4, 2008-July 26, 2010). A “translation” to this long-term planetary signature is a preview of what to expect during the time that the major signature is in effect. In the first 6 months of this year, every transit from Sun, Venus, or Mars to the Saturn-Uranus opposition has produced new lows for the year 2008 (in various equity indexes of the world). This one is also doing the same, and it is only one day old so far. It implies that the Nikkei (and other world indices) could experience a serious washout as fear grows in excess about the future of the world economy and world financial (banking) system. Therefore we are in between two conflicting signals: cycles say a primary cycle trough is now due, to be followed by a strong 2-5 week or greater rally. Some geocosmic signatures support this view if the low forms by Tuesday. But the Mars translation to Saturn-Uranus allows a possibility of a further decline into early August, and maybe even longer, as Venus and then the Sun does the same thing over the following month (August 13-23, and September 3-12). Each of these periods may be fraught with several triple digits daily declines.” 

Longer-Term Thoughts

We will continue with our series of discussions on the astrological correlations to USA 2008 Presidential election. In prior columns, I have given two long-term geocosmic cycles whose historical themes support the election of Barack Obama. The first was the 19-year waning phase of the Saturn-Pluto cycle, 2001-2020, whose historical themes correlate to greater federal spending (i.e. larger government), increased federal deficits, and increased taxes. The platform of the probable Democrat nominee supports this probability more than that of the Republican nominee. The second geocosmic factor in effect is the 248-year Pluto cycle, which will be moving into Capricorn (2008-2023), and has already begun its conjunction to natal Sun-Pluto opposition in early Capricorn-Cancer (2008-2010) of the Federal Reserve Board chart (December 23, 1913). The astrological theme of this signature pertains to the dismissal or resignation of the FRB Chairman, and/or a major restructuring of the Federal Reserve Board itself. Since the current chair was appointed by Republican George W. Bush, it is more likely that a dismissal or resignation would occur under a Democrat president. Perhaps in anticipation of such a change or restructuring, it is interesting to note that at this time, the FRB chair and U.S. Treasury Secretary are seeking to expand – not lessen - the powers of the Federal Reserve Board. 

Now let’s consider the case for the election of the presumed Republican candidate John McCain. Under the leadership of the past three Republican presidents (Ronald Reagan, George H. Bush Sr, and George W. Bush Jr), the U.S. Dollar has fallen sharply. It is now at historic lows, and is perhaps the single-most cause of the record-breaking levels of many commodities, such as Gold, Crude Oil, and grains (Corn, Wheat, Soybeans). The only break in the 23-year fall in Dollar came under the leadership of Democrat President Bill Clinton. During his two terms (1993-2001), the value of the U.S. Dollar rose steadily. For further discussion and charts to illustrate this effect, please go to a special article on “Pluto in Capricorn: The Good, The Bad, Even Worse, and Redemption,” written for my web site at http://www.mmacycles.com/articles/articles/pluto-in-capricorn/. An election of John McCain could very well continue this trend of the falling U.S. Dollar for one very important reason: the War in Iraq. The U.S. Dollar is not likely to rise long-term, nor is the price of Crude Oil likely to come down as quickly as otherwise expected via other geocosmic signatures (Uranus in Pisces), as long as the U.S. military remains in combat in Iraq. The U.S. Dollar will change its trend only when the war is over and the U.S. troops are no longer required (or desired by the U.S. administration) to be there. The transiting Pluto is in opposition to the U.S.A. Venus-Pluto conjunction in the first five degrees of Cancer from 2008 through 2011. Venus represents the currency of a country. Pluto in hard aspect to one’s Venus or Jupiter is one of the classical bankruptcy aspects in Financial Astrology (Neptune and Uranus can do the same, and Uranus will be there as well 2010-2012 as part of the forthcoming Cardinal Climax, when Saturn, Uranus, and Pluto are all in T-square in early cardinal signs). Although it is true that the platform of Barack Obama could also lead to potential bankruptcy (higher taxes, higher deficits, greater spending required to enlarge the federal government), it is also true that the military platform of John McCain could do the same by the simple fact that he is committed to staying the course in Iraq. Under McCain’s leadership, there would still be no end in sight to the U.S. military involvement in Iraq, and that would continue to plummet the Dollar and thus continue the inflationary rise in commodities like Crude Oil, precious metals, and grains. This is consistent with the Pluto transit in opposition to the USA Venus-Jupiter conjunction. 

Could these cyclical trends be changed? Of course. That is the value of astrology to society and culture. It shows the historical themes and likely consequences of policies that play into those themes. But the ultimate outcome of anything depends as much on individual or collective choices. One has the ability to plan. One has the ability to make choices that lead to a different outcome than that indicated by these historical cycles and geocosmic signatures. If you see that raising taxes and increased Federal spending and deficits can lead to economic turmoil (under the waning phase of Saturn and Pluto), then you wait for – or try to first create - a more prosperous environment to enact that kind of economic policy. You don’t spend more money and make greater investments in a falling economy which is already in great debt. You get the economy back on track first, and then you start to spend your surpluses – not add onto your debts while the economy is falling. If you see that your military involvement in a critical part of the world is leading to a collapse of your currency (and increase in your federal debt), then you do your utmost to bring that conflict to an end quickly and stop the root cause of the deflation of your currency. Unfortunately, these positions will not win elections, let alone nominations, from the current two-party system, and the polarizing effect it has had on the populace. You are either on one side or the other, and in this case, the current platforms of both sides are fraught with economic and financial dangers. And those dangers are consistent with the long-term historical cycles and long-term planetary cycles. The last time Saturn, Uranus, and Pluto came into a cardinal T-square was…. 1930-1931. It is in effect again 2008-2011. We don’t have to repeat it. But unless something changes fairly soon in these platforms, it looks to me like we will repeat it. And that is what these equity markets are suggesting too as they fail to reverse (rally) under the usually reliable geocosmic signatures for market reversals.