1793 年當英國使節團浩浩蕩蕩帶著工業革命的最新成果，前往中國熱河行宮給乾隆皇帝祝壽，並且請求允許擴大通商，這位已在位五十七年並陶醉於自己的豐功偉業的十全老人這樣說：
「天朝物產豐盈，無所不有，原不藉外夷貨物，以通有無」
英國人始終不明白為什麼乾隆皇帝只對使團成員中一位會說漢語的小男孩感興趣，而對他們工業革命的成果卻無動於衷。1840 年英國的船堅炮利打開通往中國的大門，從此這個世界變得不一樣了。
數年前，我曾在紐約時報上看過一篇有關鄭和下西洋六百週年的報導，文中戲稱：「如果是鄭和發現了新大陸而不是哥倫布，各位親愛的讀者們，你們現在正在閱讀的文字便是中文了...」
如果鄭和發現了新大陸，如果那位喜歡西學的康熙大帝能和彼得大帝一樣與時俱進，如果沒有海禁...
歷史裡有太多的如果，彼此相關，它像一顆水晶球，讓我們鑑往知來，看到了大國因閉鎖而沒落，小國因開放而興盛。
活躍於史冊中的人事物則像是最好的解說員，當我們掩卷沉思時，在我們身邊揭櫫了許多道理。
Your Highness, as Catholic Christians, and princes who love and promote the holy Christian faith, and are enemies of the doctrine of Mahomet, and of all idolatry and heresy, determined to send me, Christopher Columbus, to the above-mentioned countries of India, to see the said princes, people, and territories, and to learn their deposition and proper method of converting them to our holy faith; and furthermore directed that I should not proceed by land to the East, as is customary, but a Westerly route, in which direction we have hitherto no certain evidence that anyone has gone.
------ Entry from the journal of Christopher Columbus on his voyage of 1492
Of course, Columbus did not reach India and en route to China. He discovered North America and called the wrong people Indian. More than 500 years later, you can see Indian and Chinese engineers everywhere in the Silicon Valley; Mexican chefs cook food in 洛杉磯、鼎泰豐. (Actually I have been there several times before, not bad) Japanese cars outsold American cars in America; Tycoons smoke Cuban cigars; Ladies put on Channel perfume and wear Cartier jewelries; Professors are talking about BRIC and emerging markets in business classes; Young investment bankers are going to China; Hedge funds are setting up in Cayman Island (郭台銘的美國公司聽說也在那登記) I bought a computer from Dell and forgot to pay my monthly payment --- I received a call from a call center in India; My friend founded a company which sells cheap notebook with open source Linux operating system. His computers were made in Taiwan. His programmers are working in Philippine and Bulgaria. He used to own a web design firm.
It is amazing, isn't it. The world is no longer the segregated world it used to be. It is more integrated and collaborated than ever before. Every country has its role in the supply chain of the world. Every country could boost its standard of living through globalization: exchange goods and services which it has strong relative advantages for goods and services that it lacks as such. I truly believe everyone will be better off as a whole in the long run through trades even though some of the industries and people might be sacrifice in the short run. I had an argument with my friends who major in sociology and who love to protect the rights of the local workers and protect infant industries. Here is my 2 cents:
Infant Industry Argument
Small start-up industries might be inefficient and unable to compete with larger foreign producers who are reaping the benefits of economies of scale. However, if these "infant" industries are protected from foreign competition, they can expand their markets to the point where their production facilities become larger enough to reap the same economies of scale enjoyed by foreign competitors.
This argument has some validity, but often is abused. Also, the empirical evidence shows that it is usually the old-line, large industries with political connections that obtain protections (steel, textile) rather than new "infant" industries such as biotech, software and technology.
Support Domestic Wages
In high wage countries, the public often fears that trading with countries where wages are low will increase labor market competition and push the wage rates lower. However, trade occurs because of comparative advantage. As was previously pointed out, when countries produce more of the products where they have a comparative advantage, the productivity of labor should increase. In a competitive market, wage rates are based on the productivity of labor. Therefore, the higher productivity of labor that results from international trade should result in higher, not lower wage rates.
Again, the public's unwillingness to accept this logic is due to timing and perception. The idea that international trade lowers wage rates might be fallacy for most of workers in the long run, but it persists because it is true for some workers in the short run. Even though international trade may actually raise wage rates in the long run, many people may be unwilling to sacrifice income and undergo the retraining necessary in the short run to attain the longer-tern benefits.
這就好像最近大陸通過新勞動法，用強制的手段迫使產業升級，中間一定有人損失慘重，但為了國家的長遠利益而強行之。但是民主國家會做這樣的事嗎？政治人物承受得住來自工會和勞方的壓力嗎？可能一個遠多近空的方案在多方角力折衷之下也會大打折扣，民主是大家都欣然接受的制度，但有時做起事來還是有點莫可奈何。
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