「台灣領導人多年來警告經濟孤立有害國家競爭力，現在，他們最擔心的情況可能已經成真；而抗拒更自由貿易與經濟改革的後果，會越來越明顯可見。
大陸與南韓今年稍晚打算敲定的自由貿易協定，將賦予大多數南韓產品零關稅進入大陸的優惠。由於台灣與南韓都將大陸視為最大貿易夥伴，出口商彼此激烈競爭，如果陸韓簽訂自由貿易協定，會對台灣帶來問題。
台灣出口商品，從石化、鋼鐵、紡織到機具，5成到8成與南韓出口商品重疊。
根據經濟部，若陸韓照預定簽訂協定，台灣對大陸的出口，約有2%至5%會被南韓商品取代。而平板與機具商等利潤微薄的企業，將會在價格戰中敗下陣，被踢出大陸市場。
與此同時，台灣去年與大陸最新的服務貿易協議卻受到學生領導的「太陽花運動」影響，導致法案卡在立法院而停滯不前。
示威民眾憂心，簽訂服貿之後，企業可能越來越仰賴大陸，台灣有被大陸吞併之虞。
台灣與大陸兩個經濟體緊密相繫，是無庸置疑的事實。台灣對外投資中，有8成是對大陸投資，出口商品中，也有4成前進大陸，但設立貿易與投資障礙不會解決這種問題。
既然大陸是全球供應鏈不可分割的1部分，台灣繼續施行兩岸貿易壁壘，只會傷到自己。北京也說過，台北若不先對大陸自由化，將杯葛台灣在跨太平洋夥伴協定（TPP）等多邊協定的參與；弔詭地，台灣想不那麼仰賴大陸，還得先穿透北京。
台灣在多邊貿易方面已有些許進展，過去1年與新加坡和紐西蘭簽訂協定，這些協定雖受歡迎，但相關貿易額1年卻不到300億美元。而根據經濟部，陸韓自由貿易協定（FTA）將威脅到高達490億美元的台灣出口。
通過目前陷入僵局的服貿協議，將為貨貿協議鋪路，也將顯示台北有能力通過與落實已簽訂的貿易協議。
與此同時，台灣也開始放寬國內經濟，以符合TPP的改革要求。TPP目前有12國參與，占全球4成產出。台灣或南韓目前都未參與協商，但都有意加入。
南韓已和與美國簽訂自由貿易協定，也有利他們加入TPP。如果台灣改寫過時的規定，放寬投資限制，不僅能增進國內競爭力，還能顯示台北對加入TPP是很認真。
台灣的立法委員有機會利用本週特別會期通過兩岸協議監督條例，接著讓服貿過關。在鄰國陸續解除貿易障礙的同時，如果台灣不能跟進，將會更趨孤立.
」（Taiwan Leaves Itself Behind
Taiwan's leaders have warned for years that economic isolation will damage the nation's competitiveness. Now their worst fears may be coming true, and the consequences of resisting freer trade and economic reform are becoming clear.
Later this year China and South Korea plan to finalize a free-trade agreement that will give most South Korean products zero-tariff entry into the mainland. That's a problem for Taiwan because both countries count China as their largest trading partner, and their exporters compete head-to-head. Between 50% and 80% of Taiwan's exports—from petrochemicals to steel, textiles to machinery—overlap with South Korea's.
If the deal goes through as expected, roughly 2% to 5% of all of Taiwan's exports to China could be replaced by South Korean products, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs. Businesses with thin profit margins such as makers of flat panels and machinery are at risk of being priced out of the mainland market.
Meanwhile, Taiwan's latest trade pact with China signed last year sits in limbo after the student-led "sunflower movement" stymied its ratification by the legislature this spring. Protesters stoked anxieties that Taiwan is in danger of being swallowed up by China as its businesses become increasingly dependent on the mainland.
It's certainly true that the two economies are deeply intertwined; 80% of Taiwan's foreign investment and 40% of its exports go to the mainland. However, placing obstacles in the way of trade and investment won't solve the problem.
Since China is an integral part of global supply chains, Taiwan only hurts itself if it preserves barriers to cross-Strait trade. Beijing has also signalled it will lobby against Taiwan's participation in multilateral pacts such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership if Taipei doesn't first liberalize with China. So the road to less reliance on China paradoxically runs through Beijing.
Taiwan has made some progress on bilateral trade. But pacts with Singapore and New Zealand over the past year, while welcome, govern less than $30 billion in annual two-way exchange. A South Korea-China FTA threatens up to $49 billion of Taiwan's exports, according to the Ministry of Economic Affairs.
Ratifying the cross-Strait services pact now in limbo would pave the way for a goods trade agreement. It would also show that Taipei has the ability to ratify and implement trade accords it has signed.
In the meantime, Taipei has started to liberalize the domestic economy in line with reforms required by TPP. That deal currently involves 12 nations and 40% of the world's output. Neither Taiwan nor South Korea currently participates in the negotiations, but both have expressed interest in joining.
Here, too, Seoul has the advantage, having already signed a free-trade agreement with the U.S. with an eye on many of the stringent TPP requirements. If Taiwan rewrites outdated regulations and rolls back restrictions on investment, it can promote domestic competitiveness and signal that Taipei is serious about joining the TPP.
But first Taiwan's lawmakers have a chance to use a special legislative session this week to pass a bill promised to protesters to monitor cross-Strait treaties, and then ratify the cross-Strait services trade pact. As trade barriers among Taiwan's neighbors fall, failing to do so will further isolate the island.
It is true since 2000 Taiwan always behind everything issue??
你們台灣可能真的是病入膏肓無藥可救華爾街日報以「台灣自甘落後」為題的評論，對台灣發出警訊。
因為屆時英國金融時報也會以類似報導評論台灣的政治經濟議題所以台灣在國際間曝光率提高未必不是壞事怕什麼你們台灣外匯存款全世界第7名只不過是日益減少而已?不用耽心受怕藍綠2黨繼續惡鬥比爛看誰先死? 屆時老共來台灣收屍棺材買1送1大優待?
Comments:
自甘墮落
注音：ㄗㄧˋ ㄍㄢ ㄉㄨㄛˋ ㄌㄨㄛˋ
解釋：自己甘心思想行為向壞的方向發展。
近義詞：自甘落後
英語翻譯：wallow in degeneration
法語翻譯：se vautrer dans le vice
